Problem w/ drop rates or am I super unlucky?

#0 - April 10, 2007, 3:10 p.m.

I'm more than three quarters of the way to Exalted with Lower City; I can't count how many times I've run Shadow Labyrinth and I have NEVER seen the Leggings of Assassination drop. Seriously, Blizzard, what's the deal with the drop rate on this armor set?

I pay $15 per month just like everyone else does, and it's not to run the same instance over and over, hoping and praying to see my loot drop, when everyone else has gotten what they need from that place and moved onto other things. It's disheartening to the degree that I've come close to quitting. Please, do something about the drop rate on the Assassination set. All the people who were once willing to run Shadow Labyrinth with me have gotten what they needed and are reluctant, or else totally unwilling, to go back; meanwhile, I'm stuck without the quality gear I feel is needed for the content I really want to explore.

This has gone beyond the point at which excitement is derived from the thrill of random treasure. There is no more fun in the run through that instance. It's a task I have nearly come to accept will end in disappointment, and this game shouldn't be like that. I have no problem running an instance multiple times to get what I want from it, but when I lose count of the times I have done so, and all the people who were once willing to help me refuse on account of it not being fun anymore, something is wrong. Something needs to be changed. This isn't epic loot; it shouldn't require epic efforts or patience to attain. I've done the time, paid my dues, and I'm getting pissed that this stuff hasn't dropped for me.

Syndri

#2 - April 10, 2007, 3:14 p.m.

One, probability is a factor which operates within natural forces. Two, probability is not operating as a factor. Three, we are now held within un-, sub- or super-natural forces. Discuss.

This issue regarding the generation of loot tables has been discussed very cleverly here: https://forums.worldofwarcraft.com/thread.html?topicId=86704619&sid=1

Peruse at your leisure, Valustria. :)

Syndri

#7 - April 10, 2007, 4:10 p.m.

All loot tables are randomly generated. As they are randomly generated, whether or not a certain item may drop is determined by pure chance and not human manipulation (excluding the assignation of predetermined probabilities). Moreover, the chance that a certain item may drop will remain constant, as each loot table creation is a separate and independent occurrence.

As with the example provided, it's entirely within the realm of logical mathematics to have a coin land head side up 78 times in a row (or, conversely, that the coin will not land tail side up); similarly, it's equally as logical that a particular item may never drop during your time in World of Warcraft. Why? Because that's how probability works.

I understand that you're frustrated, Valustria, and for that I do sincerely apologize; however, your finger should be pointed at Pierre-Simon Laplace and not our development team.

Syndri

#22 - April 10, 2007, 5:02 p.m.

Q u o t e:
But not to over 50% of the community.

I'm afraid you're incorrect, Zansatsushin. To address this topic more clearly, let's discuss statistical independence.

Like the flip of a coin, loot table creation is an independent event. The definition of independent events can be loosely described as thus: if two events are independent intuitively, the occurrence of one event makes it neither more nor less probable that the other occurs.

If we apply this to current in-game mechanics, it can be said that the generation of one loot table for--let's say, Kirtonos the Herald--is completely separate from the generation of another loot table for the same boss; the two events do not correlate nor do they affect each other in any way.

To be more specific, let's say that the probability of Kirtonos dropping Boots of Valor is 8%, or .08. This number is constant. Every time a loot table is created for this specific encounter, there's an .08 chance that Boots of Valor will drop; similarly, there's a .92 chance that they will not.

Time for an example.

Batta and Berghe have formed separate Scholomance groups. Both groups are lucky enough to have a party member with Blood of the Innocents in his or her inventory. As such, both groups decide to participate in the Kirtonos event.

Batta's group begins the event at the same time Berghe's group does. At this point, two loot tables are created--one for Batta, one for Berghe. They do not overlap, nor do they influence each other. The chance that Boots of Valor will drop for Batta is .08; the chance that Boots of Valor will drop for Berghe is also .08.

Let's say that the Boots drop for Berghe and not for Batta. Distraught, Batta decides to make another attempt. He finds a player with Blood of the Innocents and completes the instance a second time. When he summons Kirtonos, a loot table is again created. Can you guess what the drop rate is for Boots of Valor this time? That's right: 8%.

It sounds as though you're more concerned with the probabilities we've assigned to certain items than with the actual mathematics of how these probabilities then act in-game. If this is the case, then you'll want to voice your issues on our Suggestions Forum, found here: http://forums.worldofwarcraft.com/board.html?forumId=11122&sid=1

Syndri

#45 - April 12, 2007, 7:50 p.m.

Enlighten me, Zansatsushin: how can you definitively comment on item drop rates when you do not know what those particular drop rates are?

If you're formulating conclusions based on in-game observations, your conclusions will be inherently incorrect, as you cannot accurately conclude nor deduce certain drop rates simply by witnessing how many times an item does or does not drop. In order to calculate the drop rate variable (which establishes the probability of occurrence) assigned to specific items, you would need to participate in all possible events where that item may drop. This is impossible; therefore, any statement regarding drop rates being "low" or "high" is completely irrelevant.