Drop Rate on "Tyrannical Beheader"?

#0 - March 19, 2010, 3:49 a.m.

Alright, I'm sure this will be followed with the requisite "[inappropriate acronym removed] nubz", "lawlz", and every other immature phrase available to the weak-minded illiterate children who tend to troll these forums; regardless I respectfully ask that those sort of replies are kept out of this thread. Granted reporting posts does virtually nothing, but then there's the .00000001% chance it will. =)

To the point:

To this day, I've run Pit of Saron roughly 7 times (Armory has not reflected the last 2 yet); each run being with the intention of obtaining Tyrannical Beheader; quite possibly the best DPS 2H axe available before ICC. Out of those seven (7) runs, I have yet to see it drop, but have seen Rimefang's Claw and Engraved Gargoyle Femur drop all seven times. Now I'm not talking one here, and one there. Tyrannus drops 3 possible weapons, and all seven times I've beaten him, he has dropped the two aforementioned weapons, whilst never dropping Tyrannical Beheader.

Now after several hours of googling, I've seen numerous claims that it has a 25%-30% drop-rate, assuming it's based off of the 3 weapons Tyrannus drops. Thottbot, Wowhead, WowWiki, and many others sport comments from players who've obtained it in one or two runs.

Thus, I'm looking for two responses:

1 - Players, what are your personal experiences with the drop rate of Tyrannical Beheader?

2- Blues, any logical explanation, or some sort of intelligent algorithm that can be provided to explain the drop rate?

I'm not necessarily complaining here; to be honest, I'm furious with it all. However, I'd like some form of civil, intelligent discussion pertaining to this. Maybe there's a possibility that it's glitched? Hard to say.. Personally, I don't think there is any sort of "algorithm" to determine it's, or any other weapons', drop rate. Here's why:

==========

"...written by a games researcher at Microsoft on how to make video games that hook players, whether they like it or not. He has a doctorate in behavioral and brain sciences. Quote:

"Each contingency is an arrangement of time, activity, and reward, and there are an infinite number of ways these elements can be combined to produce the pattern of activity you want from your players."

Notice his article does not contain the words "fun" or "enjoyment." That's not his field. Instead it's "the pattern of activity you want.

His theories are based around the work of BF Skinner, who discovered you could control behavior by training subjects with simple stimulus and reward. He invented the "Skinner Box," a cage containing a small animal that, for instance, presses a lever to get food pellets. Now, I'm not saying this guy at Microsoft sees gamers as a bunch of rats in a Skinner box. I'm just saying that he illustrates his theory of game design using pictures of rats in a Skinner box."

-courtesy of "Cracked.com" and Yahoo! News

==========

Obviously, Blizzard has mastered this concept and several other nasty techniques to keep us clicking and clicking, performing the same repetitive quest/motion over and over again. Of course, several WoW addicts and Blizzard developers would, correctly, point out that no one is forcing you to do it. Why on earth would a human ever voluntarily place themselves in a "laboratory hamster mode"?

In short, I'm just hoping for some insight on others' experiences with the drop rate, and maybe a response or two from a moderator.

Thanks!

Vrakthris

#6 - March 19, 2010, 4:11 a.m.

Starting a post by throwing around insults, Ares, is not wise. It also heads into the realm of trolling. Putting someone on the defense before you even start doesn't make for the best of conversions and will in fact prevent many who would normally be happy to provide you with their insights from posting.

Q u o t e:

2- Blues, any logical explanation, or some sort of intelligent algorithm that can be provided to explain the drop rate?

As the others have said, Ares, drop rates are random and they are not cumulative. So if an item has a 10% drop rate it has a 10% chance to drop each time. Most people think of drop rates as a 1 in something chance. So in they basically think if X has a 10% chance to drop and I run this 10 times I'm guaranteed to get it.

I'm afraid that is a false assumption. Running the Pit of Saron 7 times is a very low sampling. As the others have said they have seen the item drop in nearly every run, others may only see it once or twice and others, like you, haven't seen it yet.

The percent chance is based on hundreds and thousands runs. Over X amount of runs you are likely to see Y, N% of the time.

Vrakthris

#10 - March 19, 2010, 4:28 a.m.

Q u o t e:
Firstly.. "lol" at the Blue edit for my acronym, which is so widely used across the forums, yet only ever "moderated" here. But I'll save that debate for another thread, another day.. >.>

Our policies cover clear and masked language, Ares, the acronym you used means only one thing. It may exist across other forums but those forums are usually reactively moderated, not pro-actively. The CS forum has members from the In-Game Support staff who actively moderate and thus when we see something that violates our Code of Conduct we usually will edit it out.

The first offense is usually a freebie as we would prefer to allow you to continue your conversion.

Q u o t e:
Obviously, I understand the mechanics of ratios/percentages all too well, as I play on Skullcrusher, where we're outnumbered by Horde 4:1. Although, the ratio does not fit our percentage of losses! =(

Actually, your ratio is off. It is no where near 4:1. There are several sights out there that try to provide an accurate picture of the population on a particular realm. Thus far I have never seen one that is even close to factual and most of them are so highly exaggerated it is unreal.

Q u o t e:
A lot of this is indeed based on luck, but I'm curious if there are any other variable factors such as what classes are in the group, that determine the drop rate.

No, it doesn't matter what classes are in the group, who enters first, if you kill Mr. Bigglesworth or not or if you put your right foot in and do the hokey pokey, the percentage chance remains the same. The only time an item drop is conditional relates to quests and difficulty levels.

Vrakthris

#15 - March 19, 2010, 4:56 a.m.

Q u o t e:
This was not "masked language". I cannot count the number of times I've seen, or been, flamed without any form of "moderation". If you consider this a "first offense" then I'd like to respectfully suggest you reread my initial post and re-familiarize yourself with what I requested.

Given the definition of the acronym, Ares, yes, it was "masked language". By the fact that you are still able to post I obviously decided to edit only.

I'm not certain what rereading your initial post would do since I have already addressed your question.

Q u o t e:
After researching several sites, I've concluded one basic fact: they all concur that Skullcrusher has, roughly, a 4:1 ratio in favor of Horde. It's painfully apparent, that you're not familiar with the difficulties pertaining to the faction disadvantage we experience on Skullcrusher. I could refer you to a thread I opened in the suggestion forum which discusses this issue extensively.

I didn't say that there isn't some disparity, Ares, only that your ratio is incorrect. Unlike the sites that you looked at I have factual numbers to back up what I say.

Q u o t e:

Your sarcasm is duly noted, despite slightly unbecoming. But at least I have some sort of concrete "evidence" suggesting that the drop has no other variables outside of infinite randomness.

What sarcasm? You asked the question regarding what class enters so obviously you considered that to be a possibility. There used to be a common misconception that loot would change based on who entered the instance first as well as for Naxx if you killed Mr. Bigglesworth. Obviously the hokey pokey part was just a joke, I thought it funny and hope others did as well. I'm sorry that you weren't able to appreciate the humour.

Vrakthris

#17 - March 19, 2010, 4:58 a.m.

Q u o t e:
Also, arguing with a Blizzard staff member... you're tempting fate.

I'd suggest you refraining from posting further, before you take a mandatory vacation.

I'd rather think of it as a "lively debate". To which there is no rule against. Unless the discussion degenerates or starts to take a circular path where people are simply repeating themselves I don't see any reason for not allowing it.

Vrakthris

#22 - March 19, 2010, 5:17 a.m.

Q u o t e:
It was not contributory to the topic at hand; also you were not, and still aren't, at liberty to intervene/interrupt the discussion between Vrathkris and I.

This is not a private discussion, Ares. These forums are here for players to discuss the game with other players. This forum is moderated directly by In-Game Support and we do our best to answer what questions we can but this is by no means a private discourse.

As long as someone posting is abiding by our Code of Conduct they are welcome to post and participate in any discussion.

Q u o t e:
Something of which, you are apparently incapable of participating in.

And with that, we are done.

Ares, like your namesake, it seems that you can not help but continue to insult others and state things in such a way that it puts people off.

I hope I have addressed your particular concerns but I'm simply unable to allow this thread to continue.