Baron Rivendare (part 3)

Q u o t e:
... 160 Baron kills later.
Does he actually drop his mount?
4 instances per hour /160 = 40 hours.

Apparently I need a life :) Just hoping some random blue pops in and can confirm he still drops the Deathcharger

He does still have a mount, but it is rare.

I do wish you all the best of luck in getting it!

Q u o t e:


No that is not correct. Let me see if I can still find my text books. There is an equasion ...

0.95 = 1 - (0.99^x), which rearranges into:
0.95 - 1 = - 0.99^x
0.05 = 0.99^x, taking the logarithm of each side
ln(0.05) = ln(0.99^x)
ln(0.05) = x * ln(0.99)
x = ln(0.05) / ln(0.99) = -2.99 / -0.01 = 298

so after 298 Baron kills I would have a 95% chance of seeing the mount drop.

No, that is not correct.

Remember this phrase - The dice have no memory.

Loot drops and anything else that depend on independent 'rolls' are just that - independent.

Now, by the law of averages, given a large enough sample, the numbers work out, anything short of a few thousand samples may not prove that out.

Let's say there is a 1% chance of something happening. That means every time that event occurs - there is a 99% chance it will NOT happen.....every time.

What you are describing is a cumulative effect - which does not come into play.

Guys, over several THOUSAND drops, those rates may bear out.

An independent roll is independent of anything that came before or after.

Not sure how to explain that any other way.

Q u o t e:


Eeep, sorry Orlyla. I'll just be content with a 100% chance that I'll be hopeful it'll drop before I click on his body.

Heheh, no problem.

This is actually a very common misconception.

Remember drop rate information is usually compiled over thousands and thousands of drops.

That doesn't mean there isn't a string of 500 with none, or a string of 10 that each got one. You cannot predict independent events on a comparatively small sample size, nor the order in which they are going to occur.