#1 - Sept. 18, 2018, 2:05 a.m.
I suggest a different metric to at least get a ballpark idea of the state of the game. Blizzard handed it to us and it now has enough history behind it to at least help visualize where we are. The WoW Token Price. The information is given as part of the Blizzard API and is deterministic.
I took the liberty of downloading that data in csv format from WoWhead (also available on WoWToken.info) filtered out all regions other than the North American region then charted the entire history (if I can ever find time to upload it to a cloud drive Ill edit this to give the link) and the results in my mind were quite telling.
The history starts in April of 2015 and runs to the current date of September 18th 2018 with multiple updates per day. The initial offering started at about 30k gold spiked to 31K gold then fell off to 20K gold per token. As time passes, we see a definite trend upward over the course of months and years arriving at a fairly large bump in January of 2017 that takes us through the 100K per token ceiling all the way up to somewhere in June of 2018 where the Token reaches its peak of 208K gold per token.
Then something noticeable happens around end of July 2018 the price begins to trend downward. It is not a slight slope either. It is a drastic slope. Looking at the entire history there is nothing like this decline anywhere along that timeline.
From end of July 2018 to today the WoW Token price has dropped by half.
Make of that metric what you will but it tells me that such a steep decline in such a short timeframe is not a good thing.