Protection Warrior Numerical Analysis: 26530

#1 - May 2, 2018, 4:45 p.m.
Blizzard Post
I wanted to add to the analysis of protection warriors discussion by looking at some of the mathematics of our baseline 110 mitigation, especially in relation to druids as they are another primarily mitigation based tank. Most of the discussions on these forums have been primarily qualitative analysis; disliking the general feel or flow of the class, and/or commenting on the various talent lines. The goal of this post is to present a numerical overview of our mitigation as it stands on the beta (build 26530), because I think from a mitigation standpoint we are significantly weaker than other mitigation based tanks (namely guardian druid).

  • Baseline 110 warrior and druid on BFA Beta
  • Build 26530

Warrior Stats:
  • Baseline Physical Mitigation: 47.49%
  • Dodge + Parry: 23.13%
  • Block Chance: 29.46%
  • Critical Block Chance: 39.60%
  • Block Fraction: 30%

Effective Warrior Mitigation

If one then calculates the average damage taken (reducing the incoming DPS by the P/D chance and then adding in block and mitigation), the baseline warrior health takes 35.51% of the incoming physical damage. If we add on 100% uptime on Bolster as we already have too much rage, this becomes 31.54%. Thus, with bolster the average mitigation of a protection warrior is 68.46%.

  • No Bolster: 64.49% effective mitigation
  • Bolster: 68.46% effective mitigation

Another calculation worth doing is our damage reduction in our active mitigation (shield block). This gives us 100% chance to block and at 110 baseline a 69.06% chance to critically block. Thus the results are as follows:

  • No Bolster: 80.07% effective mitigation
  • Bolster: 82.30% effective mitigation

If we then amortize the active mitigation calculation by assuming 33% uptime (6s with 18s recharge), the average mitigation of a protection warrior is as follows:

  • No Bolster: 69.69% effective mitigation
  • Bolster: 73.07% effective mitigation

This does not take into consideration the change in any additional cooldowns, this is merely a base mitigation calculation.

Effective Druid Mitigation:

It's worth comparing this against a baseline druid on the beta who can maintain 100% uptime on IF (ironfur). We'll look at 100% uptime 0, 1, and 2 stacks of IF. The baseline druid has 21% dodge.

  • No Ironfur: 52.42% effective mitigation
  • 1 Stack IF: 60.90% effective mitigation
  • 2 Stack IF: 66.43% effective mitigation

Assuming a druid can keep 100% uptime on 2 stacks of IF, the protection warrior with 100% bolster uptime (easily maintained) manages 2.03% higher mitigation without the use of shield block. With consistent shield block usage this gap increases to 6.64% higher mitigation.
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Game Designer
#8 - May 2, 2018, 11:16 p.m.
Blizzard Post
Disclaimer: this is sort of analysis is necessarily rough--beyond these basic estimates, talents and many other things will affect mitigation and overall tank performance in any given context.

Disclaimer 2: I didn't review your calculations or assumptions, but the approach seems reasonable.

Even based on your own conclusions, you're greatly downplaying the Warrior's mitigation advantage in your example. "Only 6.64%" is a very large difference when the Druid is only taking 33.57% of incoming damage in the first place. The Warrior (who's taking 26.93% of incoming damage) is taking 19.8% less damage than a Druid. 19.8% is a very large mitigation advantage--it amounts to a 25% increase in effective health, which is very close to the 29% higher health the Druid has in your example.