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Will MMRs take a lot longer to stabilize?

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Laserbolt.6731
#1 - Nov. 26, 2013, 4:35 p.m.
Blizzard Post

Since the new matchmaking system 1) finds 10 people of a similar MMR and then deals them into two equal teams, and 2) changes your MMR based on the AVERAGE MMR of the team you faced.

Will it take weeks and weeks to sort itself out?

Say that everyone starts at say a 500 MMR (on a 1 to 1000 scale).

On the first matches, the winners MMRs only go up very slightly, and loser MMRs only go down very slightly.

Right?

And if you won your first, you are likely to lose the second match. There will be few “streaks”.

So…how long will it take until MMRS are sorted?

Josh? Tyler? Justin? Any guidance you can give?

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Justin ODell
#3 - Nov. 26, 2013, 4:59 p.m.
Blizzard Post
Laserbolt.6731:

Since the new matchmaking system 1) finds 10 people of a similar MMR and then deals them into two equal teams, and 2) changes your MMR based on the AVERAGE MMR of the team you faced.

Basically correct.

Laserbolt.6731:

Will it take weeks and weeks to sort itself out?

It shouldn’t take too many matches for an individual to get near their optimal MMR, but I’m not sure how long it will take the population on average to stabilize. It will depend on how many rated matches a day the average player participates in.

Laserbolt.6731:

Say that everyone starts at say a 500 MMR (on a 1 to 1000 scale).

On the first matches, the winners MMRs only go up very slightly, and loser MMRs only go down very slightly.

Correct.

Laserbolt.6731:

And If you won your first, you are likely to lose the second match. There will be few “streaks”.

Yes, your MMR will be pretty volatile for the first few matches, with each match increasing the confidence of your rating.

Laserbolt.6731:

I was just placed on two losing teams as my first two matches. I am scared that I will plummet to the dreaded GLicko2 basement with players who do not try or don’t know how to play.

Don’t worry about it. Your ratings deviation (confidence level) is still very wide, and you’re still going to be grouped with a wide variety of players.

Should you somehow find yourself in a basement, which should be less likely with the recent matchmaking changes, our plans for next year include a way for players to get themselves out.