I’ve been gambling with rares (weapons) in the Mystic Forge for some time now, and after the last patch, it seems like the odds of getting an exotic have been reduced in half. Anyone else experiencing something similar?
Prior to the patch, the overall odds seemed 1:5/1:6. Sure, there would be “bad luck” here/there — sometimes 1:10, if not worse — but it’d eventually “even out” (2-3 exotics in a row, for example, and a few days ago I did get Dusk).
After the patch, however, I attempted 65~ forges, and it resulted in maybe 4-5 exotics. My wife later attempted 20~ forges (also weapons), and it resulted in 2 exotics — she used to have 1:5/1:6 odds as well.
Nothing has really changed with the items we’ve used (they’re crafted), and while a recent experiment (for precursor) on here suggested a 10% odds anyways (for exotics), my experiences, and the experiences I’ve read from other sources, suggests a 15/20% instead (eventually.. randomization considered).
At first I thought it was because I removed my MF gear (paranoia
), so I bought an entire replacement set (and ate nomnom food) for my last attempt — it didn’t change the odds. I also thought it was due to alternating crafted-weapons (started this to avoid a possible diminishing return), but it didn’t change the odds either.
I’m not sure if it’s just a very large failure-rate (bad luck), or I was just “lucky” for weeks, or if some numbers were tweaked in the patch. All I know now is instead of eventually breaking-even or making profit (long-term), I consistently lost half of my investment (the exotics I got seriously equaled half of my costs!).
If anyone has any pre/post patch experience to share, then that’d be great. I doubt ANet would like to reveal much (less it be exploited), but perhaps a “Yes” or “No” to whether it has changed would be nice. ;P
