Inquiry on status/stability of the market.

#1 - Nov. 30, 2012, 10:33 a.m.

Most people that are paying attention to crafting materials for high-end gear (mainly t6 mats, and ectos) have noticed a substantial increase.

Globs are nearing doubling their price almost a month ago, and as Ulion pointed out the supply is decreasing and every time it appears that it may level out, it begins to jump again.

Prices for pretty much all tier 6 mats are all now between 400%-600% from a month ago, all continue to show rises (except for Ancient Bone) -source.

I want to say that it appears like things are leveling off but it’s still a bit too early. With these increases the time/cost spent on obtaining mats not just for legendaries, but crafted exotics, and even leveling crafting itself has dramatically increased. It was already not profitable to craft, leveling itself is a massive gold-sink, and most exotics (barring rare skins) are selling for a substantial loss.

Disclaimer: I have fared well with getting to 400 crafting on several alts mostly by using existing mats I gathered, but I have put around ~900 hours into the game and leveled up four 80’s, I don’t think it’s reasonable to assume that the majority of the playerbase can meet that commitment. My advice on crafting is relatively invalidated anymore because of the costs now.

I tried searching for dev posts, or anything that would indicate that this in fact is where they want the market headed. Or that they are working on balancing (what now seems extreme to most of us that played during the first few months). Does anyone have anything I may have missed? Do they have plans to increase drop-rates on high-end items?

If not, I (and I’m sure many others) would appreciate an official dev comment on the current state of the market, what the end-goal is as far as the time:gold ratio, and what’s considered reasonable for the majority of the playerbase.

edit: Yes, I realize bot’s banned were a substantial part of this, but it’s now encroaching near a month since the big wave, and as stipulated above, prices are continuing to rise.

John Smith

#3 - Nov. 30, 2012, 12:14 p.m.

The lost shores event was not the only modification to precursors.

We’re tracking the changing economy. The changed prices come from a lack of supply relative to demand, not from a substantial increase in inflation (this is apparent when you look at the TP as a whole bundle of good rather than just a few items).

John Smith

#21 - Nov. 30, 2012, 3:18 p.m.

Celestea.4105:
John Smith.4610:
The lost shores event was not the only modification to precursors.

We’re tracking the changing economy. The changed prices come from a lack of supply relative to demand, not from a substantial increase in inflation (this is apparent when you look at the TP as a whole bundle of good rather than just a few items).

Does this mean you are looking at ways to bring up the supply to meet the demand, or are you waiting it out a bit more to see what happens?

None of the processes are black and white. What I can say is that making decisions (or assumptions) without a complete understanding of everything involved would be a mistake. When dealing with large economies, small changes can have huge effects, it’s important to understand the effect of any changes on the game as a whole in both the short and long run.

xxxzavulonxxx.8413:
Ryuujin.8236:
xxxzavulonxxx.8413:
You did not really rebut anything I said. The money sink in this game still does not offset the growth in the money supply from hour 0 to current times. It is an aggregate issue and not micro issue. You seem to get hung up on micro subjects like money sinks.

On the contrary, you made a blanket statement that there IS a growth in the money supply on the basis gold is coming into the system.

But as I pointed out, the system has both an input and output, and unless we have data for both in and out, we can’t know for a fact whether the value of gold is rising or falling.

I disproved your statement mathematically

No you did not. You are not accounting for the fact players displace money sinks.

You are confused here. Money sinks are not specifically a micro or macro issue. You discuss sink as a micro issue individually to players, or you can discuss them as an aggregate. Either way players do not displace money sinks.

John Smith

#23 - Nov. 30, 2012, 3:35 p.m.

Darmikau.9413:
So, curious: Is there an optimal market rate the Econ team wants to see? Like a baseline for how much a Legendary should cost, or a projection for expected inflation that you’re attempting to hold stable?

I cannot go too far into our process, but we often set goals; in an expanding market though there is a split between preventative and reactionary measures. If you read my last blog you may remember one of my favorite aphorisms, "Certainty is the mother of quiet and repose, and uncertainty the cause of variance and contentions.”