I have a question about the economy!

#6 - July 17, 2014, 4:36 p.m.

Wanze.8410:

My question is:
In order to have a balanced economy, are you monitoring that ratio for all/specific items and can it hurt the economy in any way, if this ratio spikes/drops?

The short answer is yes we monitor supply.
You are correct in assuming that the TP doesn’t contain all items in the game as players tend to hang on to a large quantity of items for their personal use. It’s possible for an item to be technically oversupplied inside the game (that is that we give out more of that item than people need), but still maintain value on the TP due to willingness to sell. So the supply curve on the TP isn’t the literal supply of all items in the game, it’s really the willingness to sell curve that I’ve mentioned in other posts. Often TP prices are still a good indicator of the total supply of an item, it just isn’t conclusive.

Could it hurt the economy if something were to change and all of some item were dumped into the TP at once? Yes and no. Yes, supply shocks are bad, they’re bad for faith in stability and they’re bad balance in the game and the economy and it can be damaging. No, in the sense that our economy is massive and has a tendency to adapt very quickly to changes. This helps insulate us from any major shocks likely to happen, it’s one of the many many benefits of having a pseudo-global economy.

#8 - July 17, 2014, 5:07 p.m.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

John Smith – The Tzar of the Bazaar

You should really charge Gems for your economics lessons. I’m more than willing to pay 500 Gems per question answered.

ArenaNet is kind enough to foot this bill for everyone.

#16 - July 18, 2014, 12:38 p.m.

Zenguy.6421:

John,

Is the following a reasonable summary of the key factors driving MMO economies and their impacts on in-game markets/prices?
If not, what’s incorrect or missing? (just the key stuff)
(I know real world economies experience many of these factors. The question is whether these are the key ones for MMO economies.)

In MMOs, player rewards create ever increasing supplies of in-game currency.

• MMOs offset this by include in-game currency sinks (e.g. the 15% TP trading tax).
• Players’ expectations that they will get richer the longer they play means:
  • Currency sinks are always set at levels lower than the overall currency supply.
• The currency surplus resulting form this imbalance causes inflation.

IN MMOs, player rewards and crafting systems create ever increasing supply of in-game items.

• MMOs offset this by:
  • Limiting supply of higher value items (e.g. low drop rates for precursors)
  • Making items have limited use (e.g. account/soul bound on equip)
  • Providing mechanisms to remove items from the game (e.g. salvaging items for magic find)
• Player expectations that they will get progressively better gear the longer they play means:
  • Increasing demand for more powerful items
  • Overall, demand for lower level items is significantly lower than for end-game items
  • Mechanisms for removing items are set lower than overall item supply
• Surplus items collapse in value
• Supply constrained items increase in value

Where MMOs include open market systems, the combination of these two aspects results in:

• Ongoing inflation caused by increasing currency supply
• Prices for desirable scarce items increase far faster than overall inflation
• Prices for surplus items collapse
  • (the extent of this may be concealed by the overall inflation of prices)

There’s a lot here, but I want to present something that may make you think slightly differently about your questions. Are economies static? MMO Economies move at hyperspeed and games change very quickly. This is especially true in Guild Wars 2 when we constantly update the game adding new content and changing the game. For many of these questions there isn’t a single answer, but we move in cycles; we increase and decrease, we update and change, we add volatility and stability sometimes both. The change makes the market more interesting, more fun and allows us to keep the economy balanced.

If you like I can still answer those questions in general about working in MMO economies, or I can wait to see if you’d like to rethink the questions at all for GW2 specifically.

#17 - July 18, 2014, 12:39 p.m.

LordByron.8369:

Question:
Do you care/will do something about the fact game economy is really perceived as broken?
Or if you instead think its well perceived, why don’t you look at every single thread that had the luck to remain for few hours in general section?

There were many threads about how important economy perception is in a videogame.

If by “really perceived” you mean that you mistakenly perceive a fantastic and functioning system as broken, then no… I don’t care.

#20 - July 18, 2014, 1:36 p.m.

ZudetGambeous.9573:

John Smith.4610:

LordByron.8369:

Question:
Do you care/will do something about the fact game economy is really perceived as broken?
Or if you instead think its well perceived, why don’t you look at every single thread that had the luck to remain for few hours in general section?

There were many threads about how important economy perception is in a videogame.

If by “really perceived” you mean that you mistakenly perceive a fantastic and functioning system as broken, then no… I don’t care.

Is there ever a situation where the economy might be changed (for the worse) due to the majority perceiving a problem and thus hurting Anets bottom line?

Has there been any pressure for this to happen?

Also when will we see new legendary weapons/trinkets

When we first released we made a couple of mistakes with some low level crafting components and they were worthless way over-supplied. This made new players feel like gathering and crafting materials were worthless and changed their play patterns. We didn’t feel that was positive; I wouldn’t say it necessarily it affected our bottom line DIRECTLY, but issues like that can effect retention and that affects our bottom line.

#21 - July 18, 2014, 1:42 p.m.

wwwes.1398:

I have three questions:

1) Is precursor crafting something being held back because of technical concerns or because of economic concerns, ie a massive surge in demand for certain types of materials? I know you’re limited in what you can speculate, but I have a theory that the crafting is largely being held back because legendaries and precursors are possibly the biggest driving force of the economy and a change in how they function could cause massive waves. Wanted to know if I was correct in this.

2) When you consider game inflation, do you primarily look at the prices of farmable material and blues/greens or do you take into account super-rare items acquired from drops, rewards or gems? Is the reason you say inflation isn’t a problem simply that the items with crazy high prices are the only things with a price rising so rapidly?

3) Can you give an example of a situation where what seemed a good idea for balancing had ridiculously bad consequences? A true learning experience in GW2, I suppose you could say.

Also thanks for doing this! It’s extremely interesting every time you have something to say.

1. All I will say about this is that any discussion about precursors, that I’m involved in, involves a discussion about the materials and markets involved.

2. When looking at inflation I use a large bundle of common goods
(the bundle changes depending on the time frame and the game state). I never use super-rare items or anything involving gems.

3. Halloween 2 candy corn sinks. There was an insane amount of candy corn in the world (10’s of billions) and we underestimated the distribution of those materials and cranked up the sinks too high. This made it very difficult to interact with those sinks at all and it didn’t feel good.

#24 - July 18, 2014, 2:01 p.m.

Conncept.7638:

but there is no way you have the numbers to claim that the players think so, from a psychological perspective.

You’re adorable.

Economists have ways to measure how much your parents love you and the scariest part of all… it works.

#25 - July 18, 2014, 2:05 p.m.

Ryan Mozo.9581:

Hi John,

First and foremost thanks for taking the time to answer these questions!

I too have a question:

How does volatility/stability get manipulated (from your end) through updates such as the Living Story, which itself incurs volatility on certain items through player demand? Or do you let this type of volatility change just run its course to stabilize on its own?

Thanks!

We design in some volatility and some stability (silk wasn’t an accident ). We use our past experience, mixed with data to make predictions of what will happen given our choices. We then select outcomes that match whatever goals we have and use the data/experience to match those outcomes. We’ve gotten surprisingly good at this, but if we do make a mistake, the robustness of the player market helps smooth any bumps. For example, at one point a long time ago, we had an ecto exploit with snowflakes. This exploit produced a decent amount of ectos and put them into the market, but the market absorbed that and return to normal in a very short period of time.

#34 - July 18, 2014, 2:43 p.m.

This is not a thread to talk about precursors. There several of them out there already with data and responses. This isn’t the place for that, let’s not get the thread shut down.

#38 - July 18, 2014, 3 p.m.

wwwes.1398:

Keep your questions vague, people! This isn’t the place to argue decisions, it’s to learn why decisions are made, albeit in a way that isn’t possible to profit from.

Oh, I have one more. John Smith is a pseudonym, right?

It’s a long story…

#63 - July 18, 2014, 5:12 p.m.

I’ve fallen a bit behind, but don’t stop asking questions, I’ll try to get to them all.

#64 - July 18, 2014, 5:18 p.m.

Lord Kuru.3685:

John Smith.4610:

3. Halloween 2 candy corn sinks. There was an insane amount of candy corn in the world (10’s of billions) and we underestimated the distribution of those materials and cranked up the sinks too high. This made it very difficult to interact with those sinks at all and it didn’t feel good.

Can we infer from this that a large number of people quit the game between Halloween 1 and Halloween 2, essentially taking those billions of candy corn out of the economy (without literally doing so)? Or something else?

I wouldn’t infer a smoking gun, rather a series of different possibilities that all add up.

#67 - July 18, 2014, 5:26 p.m.

phys.7689:

How effecient is the currency exchange, in terms of risk assumed by anet.
essentially, if the currencies were real, would anet be losing money or passing fluctuations in value to the exchangees, remaining mostly untouched, and gaining value/breaking even through the spread.

How does it compare in this respect(this type of effeciency) to a direct exchange system with a tax. (like the TP kinda) from the perspective of anet as a currency exchanger.

what are the advantages and disadvantages of each style over all, from the perpective of a currency exchanger

I would argue that the comparison between the exchange and a direct exchange with a tax is is a good one. I also recognize that it’s very easy to argue for it being similar and dissimilar. I’m not currently at liberty to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the two versions (sorry), but I would definitely say that our current system was the right choice.

#108 - July 21, 2014, 2:13 p.m.

wwwes.1398:

pdavis.8031:

So as long as we are asking questions…what about champ trains and event trains “ruining the economy”? I’ve seen this argument as the reason that the champ trains and event trains were nerfed. Apparently, according to some, that they were nerfed because too many people were making too much money, and that was bad for the economy as a whole. Can you shed any light on this? Or were they in fact “increasing inflation” as has been claimed. Thanks!

I’d be interested to hear about champ trains, too, but a slightly different directions. Do you have a hand in sort of attempting to guide the zerg towards events that will help balance the economy or is that primarily something done for the sake of gameplay?

And as for champ bags, are these used as a testing ground for experimentation? Seems an ideal control given that it’s usually the same players every day.

Champ trains were a mix of things. I said before in my blog post that we wanted to redistribute content participation a bit and that was definitely true. Do they add input into the economy/money supply? Sure, definitely, how could they not, but that is by no means the entirety of the reason for the change.

Second question:
With stuff like this I try to intervene on a more macro scale and provide input, but we have experts in design that are much more suited to creating guiding events and objects of that sort.

Lastly, are the bags an experimentation object. I would say no, the game is live, nothing is an experiment. Every change we make is with the intent of it being successful.

#109 - July 21, 2014, 2:22 p.m.

Bombsaway.7198:

Is special consideration given to how you build a macro economy based on the age of the consumer in the market (how long they have played)?

Yes, this is a major aspect of design.

Bombsaway.7198:

How are you evaluating price to resource ratios across different gameplay modes which each generate more/less resources? Do you, for example, worry about the WvW player who collects resources at a lower rate than, if for example, the same time was spent in EOTM?

We make heavily data driven decisions when comparing apples and oranges, but the differences do require a group of experts working together to make good decisions that are fueled by data.

Bombsaway.7198:

Are your models more supply or demand driven?
Are you more macro focused or micro customer cluster/segment focused?

1. I ’m not sure I understand what you mean
2. Time constraints often require a more macro focus, but I prefer to work in both when possible.

#110 - July 21, 2014, 2:29 p.m.

Serophous.9085:

I just have one question:

Why isn’t it possible to put superior runes and sigils in the mystic forge to gamble? This would at least start using up the lowest priced runes and sigils on the market, and allow us to at least try for an unsoulbound rune.

I can’t discuss the origins of why. I can say that the market isn’t in a state where it would handle changing that very well. The markets need a more fundamental change.

#111 - July 21, 2014, 2:30 p.m.

Buttercup.5871:

John, I have only one pressing question. I even created a thread on it a while ago.

Why are WvW badges treated differently, forge-wise, than dungeon tokens?

Thank you for taking the time to answer our questions.

They’re a fundamentally different item. Though I expect that’s not the answer you’re looking for. Could you elaborate a bit more on the question?

#112 - July 21, 2014, 2:36 p.m.

Safari.3021:

Is there any concerns over insider trading, and do you actively watch for/monitor the in game trading practices of anet staff and sub-contactors?

For example, I wish I’d have known to save my silk and not traded it all away at the zephyrites last time around

I’m sure there is nuggets of information contained on the in house dev build that could affect future markets

The Anet devs themselves are trustworthy (though I have been known to make disproportionately extreme threats if anyone treats it as a joke). Also the CBA of insider trading at your workplace doesn’t add up.

#117 - July 21, 2014, 4:34 p.m.

Lonami.2987:

Nice thread. Some questions!

• Could we see recipe changes in the future? For example, silk bolt and weaving recipe being nerfed, or leather recipes being buffed. I’m not discussing current recipes, just if there’s any chance for some of them to change in the future, more radically than the silk bolt and leather square change from 2 scraps to 3, or even towards lower requirements.

Never say never.

Lonami.2987:

• Would it be viable to let us recycle composite crafting materials? There’s some of these, like bronze helmets, that have a ridiculous supply and price, and there’s no real way of getting rid of them, we’re talking about millions in some cases, and growing.
• Medallions and co. are useless. Why don’t transform them into inscriptions, and use them for crafting?

I think these questions may be too big for my current medium and time commitment.

Lonami.2987:

• Aren’t you worried about situations where a lower tier material is more expensive than their higher tier counterparts? Why not implement fixed conversion recipes for basic and fine materials, to maintain prices and value appreciation? (Rare materials, like shard, cores and lodestones already have fixed 2->1 recipes) While some of these materials can be farmed easily by going to their level zones and gathering their nodes, others like cloth and leather can’t be farmed as easily.

No. The materials are diverse intentionally.

#118 - July 21, 2014, 4:38 p.m.

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Three questions:

• Was it always intended that the game should offer asymmetric data on the custom offer screens? e.g. buyers can see competitive offers, but sellers can only see the highest WTB and lowest WTS.
• Post-wardrobe, did ANet intend it to be difficult to recover runes and sigils from equipment? Similarly, is it an oversight that some gear can’t be forged due to its source? For example, you can forge but not salvage karma-bought armor and you can’t even forge badge-bought armor.
• A recent patch made some changes to the mystic forge output for L75+ average gear inputs. You stated at the time that you thought we’d be pleased with the results. Have you been?

1. I’m not an expert on UI and cannot speak on that.
2. pass
3. I stated that you would be pleased with the final form. When it reaches the final form you may tell me.

#125 - July 21, 2014, 6:02 p.m.

VincentDW.9376:

Thanks for all your responses, John. Even if you aren’t permitted to go into great detail, it’s reassuring to hear that there are carefully considered reasons for certain things behaving as they do, and that decisions made regarding them are not arbitrary or casually made.

On that note, I also have a question: is there any aspect/feature of the economy that you would have designed differently, but that was essentially baked in and no longer changeable before you started in your economy oversight role? Or were you part of the design process of the game from the ground up, so to speak? If you’d prefer to answer more abstractly, is there an economy-related feature you would be sure to include in your own personal dream MMO that we don’t (currently) have in GW2?

Each time you make a game you get better at it and realize all the things you should have done.
What I would personally, as a player, love to have is a derivatives market. It could be a lot of fun, but there are also a huge quantity of problems that go along with it, so it would most likely need to be build into the game from the very beginning.

#130 - July 21, 2014, 6:59 p.m.

Psientist.6437:

Color me an impressed Tyrian.
I hope the color isn’t account bound because Wanze and John Smith deserve some of that color, in shades.
I haven’t made it through the first page and I had to post at least that sentiment.

My question:

Information releases that talk about changes to in game systems impact the market. The information concerning changes to the dye mechanic came in dribbles and the market reacted as any market would to incomplete information.

If it were up to you, would you have released all of the information concerning changes to the dye system at once?

Unfortunately, releasing problem isn’t a single variable problem. There is an unbelievable amount of work required to release information in an official/public way.

#138 - July 21, 2014, 8:49 p.m.

Psientist.6437:

Would this derivatives market have anything to do with the unique features of Tyrian lore or just be an addition to our mercenary marketplace?

I would attempt to incorporate any game feature into the world as a piece of the world.

#148 - July 22, 2014, 1:03 p.m.

tolunart.2095:

Rouven.7409:

I’m not sure if John can, but if not, is someone else perhaps able to elaborate on the implications? Thanks in advance – and thanks John for participating here, love it!

Because most activities produce in-game currency (“gold” or whatever) from nothing, the amount of money in circulation tends to go up as the game ages. Currency sinks like repair costs are a major concern to new players, but a minor annoyance to more experienced players. Inflation of player-controlled market prices is expected, simply because it takes a lot of work to have 10 gold to spare on your toon while leveling, but when you’re at max level for six months you don’t upgrade or repair equipment as often so more experienced players have more gold to spend.

The game works much differently when 5% of the players have recently achieved max level vs. when 50% of the players are at max level and gearing alts. The market reflects this as a natural consequence of players involved in the game over time. The design of the game reflects this, for example removing repair costs makes it easier for newer players to accumulate gold while experienced players barely notice the difference.

Devs have to watch the effect of currency sinks and faucets carefully, and try to balance the amount of money in circulation with the sinks designed to remove it in order to make sure that new players can afford basic equipment as they level but experienced players can still feel as though they have goals to achieve. If either side is too rich or too poor the game suffers.

To add to this. There are many different types of currency sinks, but the most common error when attempting to control for inflation is to apply a set of large static sinks. An example of a large static sink is something like a commander’s icon. You want a bunch of these in the game, but you don’t want them to be your only tool for controlling inflation.

What I call “Dynamic Sinks” are important. These are sinks that either change naturally with the state of the economy, or a sink that designers can modify to pull more or less money out of the total supply. The trading post is an example of a dynamic sink.

Combining multiple types of sinks together allow you to more effectively control the money supply as well as don’t look terrifying to a new player when he sees that there are 900,000 gold worth of stuff he needs to buy at level 80.

#151 - July 22, 2014, 1:20 p.m.

Michael Walker.8150:

Quoting myself, adding some questions, for every question answered I will give 1 gold to the next drunk quaggan.

Michael Walker.8150:

Hi John!

Cool idea, would love to hear some of your experiences when creating the BLTP

-Can you explain how you started designing the BLTP when approached by Anet?
-How big was/is your team, how many variants and iterations did you come up with and how different were they?
-Did you have to change some aspects that make perfect sense economically but didn’t fit lore?
-If there have been others, what were the alternative names for the BLTP?
-How many hours approximately did you spend working with sound engineers & audio artists?
-How much gold do you have in game?
-Have you ever contributed something to the lore behind the economy or helped?
-Who had the idea for the mystic forge conduit? Love mine and it worked well (?) as a material sink. Can you give that person a cookie?

Angel’s post was really interesting

//edit
@Wanze
Questions aren’t about the current economy, still fits the spirit of the thread I hope. More than one because I don’t want a specific answer.

-Can you explain how you started designing the BLTP when approached by Anet?
I did not design the BLTP, the concept of it was in place upon my arrival. There are many major aspects that went into the design including programming and design and I wouldn’t want to speak for those individuals.

-How big was/is your team, how many variants and iterations did you come up with and how different were they?
The internal structure inside arenanet is complicated (yes I’m sidestepping the question, sorry).

-Did you have to change some aspects that make perfect sense economically but didn’t fit lore?
Almost, but lore was added to merge the world and the BLTP system together.

-If there have been others, what were the alternative names for the BLTP?
I’m not free to say, sorry.

-How many hours approximately did you spend working with sound engineers & audio artists?
Me personally? None unfortunately, our sound and music guys are fantastic.

(skipping a couple)

-Who had the idea for the mystic forge conduit? Love mine and it worked well (?) as a material sink. Can you give that person a cookie?

Izzy and I brainstormed that event with the conduits together, it was a lot of fun and very successful.

#156 - July 22, 2014, 5:28 p.m.

Psientist.6437:

John Smith.4610:

Conncept.7638:

but there is no way you have the numbers to claim that the players think so, from a psychological perspective.

You’re adorable.

Economists have ways to measure how much your parents love you and the scariest part of all… it works.

The EULU allows Arenanet et al to data-mine chat logs.

John Smith, there are so many ways to shape information for thermodynamic effect. Your response to this player is almost caustic.

Questions!

1. The RMT algorithm, does it process every gold and gem bit as individual bits (ie do gem and gold bits queue in a single line), process bits as batches, or both?

2. The RMT algorithm, would it translate simultaneous “no demand” for gems and gold into a vector?

I don’t understand what you mean by RMT algorithm, could you elaborate?

#158 - July 22, 2014, 5:32 p.m.

Ayrilana.1396:

He’s referring to the conversion rates of gem and gold within the gem store most likely.

Ah, I see.
As a note, while RMT is accurate, it is generally used to refer to third party traders, hence my confusion.

#159 - July 22, 2014, 5:35 p.m.

Psientist.6437:

John Smith.4610:

Conncept.7638:

but there is no way you have the numbers to claim that the players think so, from a psychological perspective.

You’re adorable.

Economists have ways to measure how much your parents love you and the scariest part of all… it works.

The EULU allows Arenanet et al to data-mine chat logs.

John Smith, there are so many ways to shape information for thermodynamic effect. Your response to this player is almost caustic.

Questions!

1. The RMT algorithm, does it process every gold and gem bit as individual bits (ie do gem and gold bits queue in a single line), process bits as batches, or both?

2. The RMT algorithm, would it translate simultaneous “no demand” for gems and gold into a vector?

1. It’s more complicated than that, but as you know I cannot discuss the specifics.

2. If I’m understanding correctly then no. The exchange requires player activity for change, it does no interpret a lack of activity as value.

#162 - July 23, 2014, 2:17 p.m.

Lodius.5392:

@John Smith

It appears you are responding to these questions in this post… So my quick question in regards to the economy is this.

The economy centers around wealth of the players. This could be graphed on a bell curve (but that is outside the spirit of this post).

To craft a legendary weapon people are required to earn around 2000 – 3000 gold. Which, when not considering drops, would require a person to run around 1,000 dungeons.

My questions are centered around gold making:
1) Dungeons. Are there talks / will there ever be an increased incentive to run dungeons? You cannot run more than the same path once per day now to get rewards. The 1.25 – 1.5g takes a while to amass any amount of wealth.

2) T6 material. There are no place to farm for T6 mats. The drop rate on these is extremely low, even in the Level 80 areas. Is there any talks to increase the drop rate or make these more “farmable” to lower the price on the TP? I mean… up to 55 silver a piece for some of these mats is getting very expensive.

3) Laurels. Tons of things require Laurels… from Ascended Accessories, to Ascended Armor/weapon recipes, Heavy Crafting Bags for people working on Legendaries, etc etc. Is there any thoughts to increase the amount of laurels that a person receives?

I can’t answer questions about our future plans. I’m more here to answer questions about our/my process in the economy, how the economy works, the past and other interesting ideas that don’t require me to violate an NDA.

#172 - July 23, 2014, 11:50 p.m.

wwwes.1398:

It’s hard to think of more questions, you’ve done such a thorough job.

Can you talk more about your role within the development process? You’ve alluded a few times to what seems like very specific periods of input to the process, do you have daily discussions on a project like Dry Top as it’s being developed or is it just an advisory role at the beginning and end?

On a different note, how involved do you get on a day to day basis? Do you operate like a stock trader with 3 monitors of different markets or just look at a daily snapshot of activity? Is part of your job identifying major anomalies or abuses in the system as they happen and flagging them for developers to take care of?

Again, this is fascinating to math/programming nerds like myself that frequent these boards, so thank you! I wish we had more threads like this with developers/writers, it makes the game more enjoyable to hear about how much care goes into it.

How much input I put into a project is dependent on the project and it’s possible economic interactions, it can go from a talk at the start middle and end to meetings every day. We have great designers too, so they are checking for economic interactions as well.

I’m hesitant to say that finding anomalies is part of my job, but being a person who recognizes patterns and anomalies is a must in this position.

I’m glad people are enjoying this mini Q&A, it’s great to see people interested!

#173 - July 23, 2014, 11:58 p.m.

TooBz.3065:

Hi John,

How does wealth / material distribution affect how you think about sinks?

For example, I imagine that gaining wealth for the sake of gaining wealth could be, under some circumstances, be very similar to a sink – as wealth and materials are held outside the market. The problem being that at anytime those materials and gold could flood back in. Or is this a self-correcting problem that you don’t need to worry about?

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe you’re asking if the sink is likely to sink from the rich/poor/middle/everyone, is that a factor of the design?

Where the sinks hit are a major factor of the process. Imagine the difference between HoHo Tron allowing people to donate to kick off the event faster and requiring anyone who wants to participate to donate.
It’s good to think about sinks and faucets in terms of wealth and potential wealth, both must remain balanced or you lose sleep over the possibilities.

#189 - July 24, 2014, 1:18 p.m.

Nefara.2186:

Nefara.2186:

Since you’ve mentioned that “silk wasn’t an accident”, I’d love to know some of the reasoning behind that. When you say you want to add volatility, I’m very curious as to what the benefits are to putting an immense amount of demand stress on to a specific commodity. Doing so effected the price of all cloth (except jute), since Damask is so profitable to craft. However, it is more than triple the price of other ascended materials and all cloth is at least twice as expensive as its counterparts. it’s been terrible for newbs who want to level up their armor related crafting. I don’t understand the need for the imbalance so I’d love some illumination.

On a related note, is there an economic reason why superior runes and sigils are not able to be put into the mystic forge? Adding a mystic forge recipe would help equalize the prices of all of the superior runes, adding value to the, well, crappy ones and adding supply to whichever ones are currently en vogue. Was this inequality something else that was planned and if so, why?

If you get the chance I’d still love a response about the benefits of cost imbalance, it’s something I genuinely would like to understand better!

I’m not confident I can adequately explain the concepts you’re asking about in this forum without a significant time investment. Remind me of this question at a later date and I’ll put some thought into it.

#190 - July 24, 2014, 1:26 p.m.

VincentDW.9376:

Ongoing thanks, John! Also, another one for you:

As part of your in-game economist duties, do you have any input into more “meta-economic” decisions, or things that will have ramifications for the in-game economy but aren’t always though of as being directly a part of it? For example, are you consulted on things such as when to offer a sale on the box price of the game (since an influx of new players surely shifts the supply and demand curves of the in-game economy), or is this solely the purview of other departments like marketing? In the same vein, are there other areas of the game that you consult on as an economist that you think would be non-obvious or surprising to the average player?

I very often act as a statistician for all kinds of projects inside the company, providing data analysis on everything from art to audio to business. Though something as far away as box sales is more something that I would be informed of.

#191 - July 24, 2014, 1:30 p.m.

bri.2359:

I am not sure if this has been asked yet, but I have some questions for John regarding RNG as implemented in GW2.

Were you involved with the initial design of this, and if so, were other options discussed? Was the decision to implement the current version based on economic or game design factors, or a bit of both?

Is the algorithm constantly monitored and tweaked, or is set and let run for a certain period of time while you collect/analyse data?

I’m not sure what you mean, do you mean implementation of the RNG code-wise or specific instances of it inside the game? I think some more specifics would help me.

#192 - July 24, 2014, 1:35 p.m.

Ayrilana.1396:

HHR LostProphet.4801:

For clarification:
John, is the fact that profit from the traiding post is shifted value, unlike the reward from other activities, which is newly created value, the justification for traiding post flippers to have, in theory, unlimited profit?

Followup:
What is the justification for traiding post flippers having an exponential maximum-reward-curve, unlike any other activities which all have just a steady, constant maximum-reward-curve?

Followup:
If skill is the justification, do you want to express that the traiding post is the most skillful activity in this game? Based on the formula that the most challenging activity should be rewarded the most? Does that mean that traiding post flipping is considered as “endgame content”? So is any other activity in this game worth less and at its core only exsiting because it fuels the traiding post? Doesn’t this mindset lacks the true meaning of a MMO, playing together to achieve more?

You’ll likely find your answer here but I’m sure he’ll elaborate when he has time.

https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/bltc/Why-manipulate-that/page/2#post3175493

I have already answered my opinions and the facts on flippers, but I would point out that flippers do not have an exponential gain curve. I am definitely not making a comment that the TP is the most skill portion of the game. I have previously implied that since the amount of profit is very finite and split between those participating, the fact that anyone makes a decent amount of profit indicates a barrier to entry that could be skill based.

#193 - July 24, 2014, 1:38 p.m.

Lodius.5392:

As part of economy and growth is there any “Guest Pass” or “Free Weekends” so that I can tell my friends about it.

This would help increase the rate of new players coming into the game.

How about offering incentives to recruiting people?

I am interested in the economy because I enjoy the game and do not want to see it ever die.

This is a bit beyond my scope, sorry. Also it falls into my future things coming out clause, so I can’t answer twice, but I’m sorry twice as well and I hope that makes up for it.

#211 - July 25, 2014, 1:01 p.m.

Psientist.6437:

John Smith.4610:

Ayrilana.1396:

He’s referring to the conversion rates of gem and gold within the gem store most likely.

Ah, I see.
As a note, while RMT is accurate, it is generally used to refer to third party traders, hence my confusion.

This is not a returned volley:

Thank you John Smith for asking for clarification, thank you Ayrilana for providing clarification, pardon me not clarifying myself in a timely manner.

The RMT label is accurately applied to Arenanet et al. ‘You’ have collapsed the traditional third party responsibilities of RMT into the responsibilities of Arenanet et al.

Question

Have you as a game theory economist ever considered partnering with other game theory economists to create the backbone for a third party neutral RMT company that would provide RMT services to participating game worlds?

I have thought of it, I think it would be very interesting to have new worlds to work inside constantly and honestly more games need to start using economists. I also have extremely negative feelings about third party RMT because I watch them steal and destroy what players have created and it sickens me. Competing them out of business would be worth it alone.

#212 - July 25, 2014, 1:07 p.m.

Ask Dons Mop.3601:

Hey John! I have a question about limited time items, or items with no current way of acquisition other than the trading post. Alot of these items will continue to go up in price on the TP, the Halloween 1 skins for example, but there are also a few with no real demand for but are still unobtainable by other means. The current LS1 items are on the laurel vendor now(Which I personally thought was a very good way to deal with them). Are there any plans on re-implementing this idea on the other items that are unobtainable? Or would the re-introduction be too volitile?

I’m sorry, I can’t comment on future content.

Edit: I didn’t see that response above.

#214 - July 25, 2014, 1:45 p.m.

phys.7689:

John Smith.4610:

Psientist.6437:

John Smith.4610:

Ayrilana.1396:

He’s referring to the conversion rates of gem and gold within the gem store most likely.

Ah, I see.
As a note, while RMT is accurate, it is generally used to refer to third party traders, hence my confusion.

This is not a returned volley:

Thank you John Smith for asking for clarification, thank you Ayrilana for providing clarification, pardon me not clarifying myself in a timely manner.

The RMT label is accurately applied to Arenanet et al. ‘You’ have collapsed the traditional third party responsibilities of RMT into the responsibilities of Arenanet et al.

Question

Have you as a game theory economist ever considered partnering with other game theory economists to create the backbone for a third party neutral RMT company that would provide RMT services to participating game worlds?

I have thought of it, I think it would be very interesting to have new worlds to work inside constantly and honestly more games need to start using economists. I also have extremely negative feelings about third party RMT because I watch them steal and destroy what players have created and it sickens me. Competing them out of business would be worth it alone.

how could you compete them out of business without having similar effects, and employing similar tactics?
Essentially how can you compete with people who operate above the laws, in a completely self interested fashion?

Their tactics must be combated inside the game as well.

#216 - July 25, 2014, 6:53 p.m.

John Smith.4610:

Conncept.7638:

but there is no way you have the numbers to claim that the players think so, from a psychological perspective.

You’re adorable.

Economists have ways to measure how much your parents love you and the scariest part of all… it works.

I’ve gotten a lot of mixed feedback about this comment and I wanted to agree that it’s unnecessary. It’s an overly caustic response to an accusation (which isn’t the worst thing in the world), but it’s been pointed out that this isn’t a two way street which changes the situation entirely (and makes it really bad). My community team are saints and allow me the time and medium to interact with the players, I’ll be focusing more on providing positive responses as much as I’m able.

Cheers all, questions welcome.

#231 - July 28, 2014, 2:04 p.m.

Mckeone.9804:

John – (1) how do you view your role in economic management . . . although a micro person, how much, if at all, do you incorporate macro modeling into your work, (2) do you have any real life role models that you follow, and (3) what papers/blogs do you read?

1. The majority of my work ends up being on the macro side, mostly due to limited time.
2/3. Does Urijah Faber count?
I enjoy reading about Nate Silver’s work and I am a big fan of Paul Krugman. I’m not sure I would call them role models because our work is so vastly different, but I would reference their traits of success and excellent work as something to look up to.

#232 - July 28, 2014, 2:18 p.m.

Mbelch.9028:

John, I just have to say thanks for taking the time and effort to answer some of our meager questions. As someone who does tend to flip items when I can make educated guesses on what to flip, I take great interest and often read this sub forum .

I’m also a person who has had a monopoly on an item for a time. It’s quite profitable, but I’m curious (and yes, this is my question) as to if you/your team does anything if it notices a monopoly; I.E. one or two people working in tandem to control a price.

My followup is: has this been an issue insofar that you’ve noticed it and had to take action?

Thanks for your time again, and here’s two notes—
-As a journalist by profession, my follow-up might seem redundant but it is necessary.
-As a reader of this forum, I appreciate your sometimes snarky responses to those who earn them. I’ll never likely earn one, but if I did, I’d add it to my signature.

Monopolistic or cartel control isn’t really an issue in guild wars 2. Most of the markets won’t bare it for long enough for us to even get around to fixing it, and 99% of the time people trying lose huge quantities of money. I wouldn’t say that we’ve never had to do anything about it, but the details I’m not currently allowed to speak on.

#241 - July 31, 2014, 6:28 p.m.

Mckeone.9804:

What kind of tools do you use to manage the economy? Did you develop them in house, get them from a third party, or is it just excel gone wild?

We have a big data solution to help me manage the obscene quantity of data involved. I have a mix of third party and proprietary tools, but one never fully escapes excel. I’m oldschool and have an unhealthy love for excel, though it has many limitations, so if I need to do more advanced statistics I need to use more serious software.

#249 - Aug. 1, 2014, 1:46 p.m.

Zaxares.5419:

Question: Just how old are you, John?

“The secret of genius is to carry the spirit of the child into old age, which mean never losing your enthusiasm.” – Aldous Huxley

:)

#251 - Aug. 1, 2014, 1:55 p.m.

Psientist.6437:

‘, Thank you in advance for any answer and inclination to answer
I am an economist onlyif economists accept currency as the anative function of reality
please be generous with your answer breadth
would I know what I am not asking

1, Hello?
2, Do you have a character avatar?
3, Do you consider yourself Tyrian?
4, Would you consider anative RMT algorithm a system rational Tyrian?
5, 4 and why?
6, What is 6 afraid of?
7, as phi’1,pi’1,phi as
8, How would ‘4 as yes, be named?
9, I xp synesthesia with words on paper, am I typical,atypical?

edit for lovinglilyliveredlovelilies

What I can answer:
1. Hello to you sir.
2. I have an two accounts that are play accounts neither is this account (if that’s what you mean)
6. Me
7. 0.61803
9. No, as atypical means unrepresented by a group, you would be represented as a group of people who experience synesthesia. (For those that don’t know, synesthesia is when someone experience words with multiple senses, think of it as tasting the words your write.)

#252 - Aug. 1, 2014, 1:58 p.m.

Wanze.8410:

QUESTION:

How long does it usually take to implement big changes to the economy from the point that Anet decides that something has to change until the patch goes live?
As the question is propably too generic, i will give 2 past examples, you maybe are allowed to comment on:

1. The change of making ectos salvageable into t6 dust. How long did you monitor t6 dust until you decided that their droprate in general is too low and how long did it take you to come up with the idea of salvaging them from ectos instead of raising their droprate across the board? And over a year later, did it work out as expected in the long term?

2. How long did it take to implement ascended weaponcrafting from the decision to implement it until it went live in september last year? And how much did you have to prepare the game economy for it? I guess the 2 patches before it (Pavillion and Invasions) where a way of injecting lots of mats into the market in preparation.
Had the introduction of Essences of Luck a big impact on the way you decided to implement ascended crafting or were these changes rather unrelated? I also guess, you already had a good plan on how to implement ascended armorcrafting 3 months later before you released ascended weaponcrafting. How much changes went into armorcrafting between september and december?

1. We were monitoring the situation for quite awhile, brainstorming solutions. I cannot take all the credit for that change either, Izzy is the genius in this situation. The change has worked exactly as we hoped it would.

#254 - Aug. 1, 2014, 2:27 p.m.

TChalla.7146:

I’m no economist by any stretch of the imagination. Mathematician… yes. Economist… no way. However, I’ve been enjoying this particular topic quite a bit, so I’ll throw my own question into the mix.

In general, what determines whether or not a particular item will be tradeable? Is it a complex list of criteria, or is it relatively simple?

I’m honestly of the mindset that the vast majority, if not all of the items, should be tradeable, but I also know that might be a stretch overall.

It isn’t simple. There’s a lot of factors that go into the decision. The intent of the item, the reason or goal behind it’s creation, usually leads us in the direction of deciding.

#257 - Aug. 1, 2014, 6:17 p.m.

Astraea.6075:

John Smith.4610:

Mckeone.9804:

What kind of tools do you use to manage the economy? Did you develop them in house, get them from a third party, or is it just excel gone wild?

We have a big data solution to help me manage the obscene quantity of data involved. I have a mix of third party and proprietary tools, but one never fully escapes excel. I’m oldschool and have an unhealthy love for excel, though it has many limitations, so if I need to do more advanced statistics I need to use more serious software.

As someone who works in the BI/DWH field, I’d be extremely interested in any more details that you are able to provide about the tools you use, so I guess my question would be around the scope of the game data you’re able to access with these tools.

For instance, are you able to link data about how players spend their time in game with data about their “economic activity”, and thereby observe trends and patterns that might not be obvious otherwise?

There is almost no data that I cannot link together for analysis.

This week I created a table composed of multiple in game interactions that was larger than 800 billion rows.

#259 - Aug. 1, 2014, 6:41 p.m.

Elrey.5472:

Would it hurt to share some of the info? And here i’m thinking in dumb funny info just because i’m in the mood of having a laugh with the data.

As examples:
How many players sold a legendary at a really cheap price by misstake? (150 gold instead of 1500 or something like that).
How many players destroyed precursors because they don’t know what they are?
How many times someone bough the same unique item because of lag or another reason?

You know, that kind of data that makes you smile in the morning ^^. I guess there is better ones but i’m sleepy at the moment.

It would have to be numbers that I could look up that weren’t polluted by goldsellers.

#261 - Aug. 1, 2014, 7:05 p.m.

AngelsShadow.7360:

As someone who is very much interested in a career in economics, how did you get involved in MMO economies? Also, what would you consider your basic day-to-day routine?

Step 1 is definitely play MMOs. Play them a lot, play many different types, be the best at them. Learn to understand them from every perspective, not just your own.

Step 2 actually learn economics. There are many ways, choose the one that will work for you. A good portion of economics is intuitive and mathematical, but a lot of real value comes from the ability to understand what’s happening when that isn’t true.

Step 3 don’t skimp on the extras, advanced statistics and programming. You want to know SQL and python (for now), but you’re way better off with a more fundamental programming education and that means c to c++ to c#, then branching to sql and python.

These are all of course suggestions that come from (and essentially describe) my personal opinions on the matter. You could, arguably, get a job without accomplishing these, but you’ll be much better at that job if you do.

#267 - Aug. 4, 2014, 1:02 p.m.

Essence Snow.3194:

John Smith.4610:

AngelsShadow.7360:

As someone who is very much interested in a career in economics, how did you get involved in MMO economies? Also, what would you consider your basic day-to-day routine?

Step 1 is definitely play MMOs. Play them a lot, play many different types, be the best at them. Learn to understand them from every perspective, not just your own.

These are all of course suggestions that come from (and essentially describe) my personal opinions on the matter. You could, arguably, get a job without accomplishing these, but you’ll be much better at that job if you do.

Does that include understanding mmo socioeconomics, reward psychology, and how the two relate?

That’s going to be really hard to learn without a mentor or a lot of experience. There is some good information, but I wouldn’t call it complete. It also changes drastically between cultures which is another hurdle.

#268 - Aug. 4, 2014, 1:03 p.m.

phys.7689:

How do you feel about non item based trade, such as the selling of services, player to player.
like dunegeon completion, puzzle portals, guided tours, whatever else people can come up with.

Would you ever attempt to formalize the system?

I think I would have to get together with others and discuss the cost benefit of those actions, I don’t have a statement to make on them at the moment.

#269 - Aug. 4, 2014, 1:04 p.m.

Astraea.6075:

John Smith.4610:

There is almost no data that I cannot link together for analysis.

This week I created a table composed of multiple in game interactions that was larger than 800 billion rows.

I think I might be suffering from data envy… we complain when our users start creating queries that contain a few million rows.

I’ve been there, not fun times.

#273 - Aug. 5, 2014, 1:01 p.m.

wwwes.1398:

This probably falls under the category of “questions you can’t answer”, but… given the proven poor value of the recent Tyrian Explorers Knapsack update to the gem store, is it simply that you feel adding an “Empty Box” item to the store for 100 gems is too gauche?

I kid, a more serious question regarding that might be, what goes into deciding what the precise value of items in the gem store should be and the balance between what an item may be actually worth in relation to similar items and what its price is set at? Are there times when something is priced at a point specifically to influence purchases of other things?

Also, add my name to the list of amazed and envious in regards to the massive amounts of data analysis and manipulation at your disposal.

I cannot speak on the details of the gemstore.

#274 - Aug. 5, 2014, 1:02 p.m.

Atlas.9704:

John Smith.4610:

Step 3 don’t skimp on the extras, advanced statistics and programming. You want to know SQL and python (for now), but you’re way better off with a more fundamental programming education and that means c to c++ to c#, then branching to sql and python.

I apologize for the off topic question, but how difficult is python to learn?
I’ve dealt with C++, played around with C#, and currently working with classic ASP and ASP.NET.
I have been told that if I know C# I should be able to grasp basics. I didn’t know how accurate that was.

Python is not hard at all to learn. If you’re used to programming it will come as quickly as c# from c++.

#278 - Aug. 5, 2014, 2:20 p.m.

Rauderi.8706:

John Smith.4610:

We have a big data solution to help me manage the obscene quantity of data involved. I have a mix of third party and proprietary tools, but one never fully escapes excel. I’m oldschool and have an unhealthy love for excel, though it has many limitations, so if I need to do more advanced statistics I need to use more serious software.

Excel <3

Anyway, so so glad to see engagement with the red-posts. Why’s this popular? Because FEEDBACK.
So, thanks for all the time you take on this, JS, and even going so far as to explain when policy limits your responses.

As for a question, would you be at liberty to discuss the growing gulf between gem-to-gold and gold-to-gem rates? There’s definitely a bit of perception-rancor that I wouldn’t be getting value for my gems relative to those using gold to purchase gems. It’s stopped me in the past from making that conversion.

Was it intended to be an additional gold sink or it is just a proportional effect to gold inflation? Does that gap lower the volatility of gem prices?

I’m not sure what you mean by growing gulf between the rates, the gulf has always been the same.

The gold/gem rates have very little to do with gold inflation inside the game.

#297 - Aug. 6, 2014, 8:18 p.m.

I think the topic of this thread has digressed a bit, let’s stay on topic (I know, black pot here).

#301 - Aug. 7, 2014, 1:38 p.m.

Wanze.8410:

Question:

I dont know how involved you have been with the chinese version of the client but in terms of game economics/mechanics (for example crafting or forge recipes), was there something that was implemented differently than in the US/NA client?
I know that you cant comment on future changes, so i dont want to know which changes might be coming over to us but maybe there is something that you handled differently over there because the market and economy was starting from scratch and when implementing it over here, it would cause too much upset to price equilibriums.

China is largely the same game. We felt like we did a good job with the original GW2 and so we carried that over. What China did get was all the adjustments we made over the last year+ to fix mistakes in the west, so they started on a better foot over there.

#302 - Aug. 7, 2014, 1:41 p.m.

MFoy.3284:

I’ve always wondered what drives the Gold to Gems conversion rate? I remember someone (you?) stating it started with a large pool of Gems and no Gold. Now, almost two years later it would seem to have changed to the other way around.

I would expect when we spend our converted Gems at the gem store they go to Bit Heaven and now are out of circulation. So, where do new Gems come from that affect the conversion rate? If players convert Gem into Gold that adds back into the pool right?

Not complaining at all. In fact, the Gold to Gem exchange has always seemed more than fair as a concept regardless of the exchange rate or other white noise in the system. As a player I commend both you and Anet for supporting the Exchange. But I am curious under what conditions does the Gem Pool expand?

Thanks John, you do a stellar job keeping the economy humming along and show your commitment to fair play with posting in threads like this. Much applause.

-M

The gem pool expands when players trade in gems for gold. If you assume two stockpiles of currency, it works pretty much exactly like you would expect.

#310 - Aug. 11, 2014, 12:41 p.m.

Minos.5168:

John Smith.4610:

The gem pool expands when players trade in gems for gold. If you assume two stockpiles of currency, it works pretty much exactly like you would expect.

You have mentioned in the past (if I recall correctly) that the Gem/Gold ratio isn’t purely based on the exchange, though.

Are there restrictions in place to prevent the rate from dropping too low?
(i.e. Let’s say a group of people collaborated to buy millions of gems and trade them for gold in an attempt to drastically reduce the ratio of Gold to Gems.)

If they all hit “Exchange” at once while the rate was very favorable, they could amass a large amount of gold prior to the rate dropping.

If, say, 100 Gems then dropped from being worth 10g to 1g… They could easily buy back gems and, in effect, cheat the system.

Are there restrictions in place to prevent this?

Yes, there are restrictions to prevent any major player from forcing the exchange into a place they could flip money back and forth to generate wealth.

#321 - Aug. 12, 2014, 3:33 p.m.

Astraea.6075:

Another question for John:

What do you see as the main challenges/risks faced by MMO economies, and how well do you think GW2’s economy has fared against these?

The standard challenge is always hyper-inflation. I would argue that GW2 has tackled this challenge very, very successfully.

Second, a major risk is cartels controlling your economy(ies) and I would argue that we’ve done an excellent job there as well.

#325 - Aug. 13, 2014, 1:08 p.m.

juno.1840:

QUESTIONS

1. What gold threshold would you use to classify a GW2 player as “rich” (yeah I know this is subjective, but let’s use the RL equivalent of multi-millionaires — my guess would be 6000g-ish, enough to buy a couple legendaries off the TP)

2. Roughly what percentage of the GW2 player population would fall into this “rich” category (probably tough since “smart” players would have their wealth in inflation-proof investments instead of cash in the vault — an educated percentage based upon your view of the data would be more than satisfactory)

3. How does this category of players effect the economy? (maybe a good/bad/neutral type of classification with a brief reason or two as to why)

Thanks!

These are value statements, and I don’t feel comfortable making value statements.

#343 - Aug. 14, 2014, 12:12 p.m.

Hermes.2157:

The lowest listing of items you put on the TP only takes into account the last 100 items when calculating the total amount listed. Will this be changed or can it be changed?

We are aware of this bug, but I cannot comment on when/if the fix will come in.

#351 - Aug. 19, 2014, 2:23 p.m.

Mckeone.9804:

(a) Does anyone read the “what we would like in the gemstore thread” and take the suggestions into account?

(b) Has anyone ever given you an award for good communication, ie, giving straight answers or, if you don’t have a straight answer, admitting it and explaining why?

A. Yes, people are constantly reading that thread.
B. No and while I’m here answering questions often, tact clearly isn’t my strongest skillset, so I’ll need to continue developing that before any awards are in order.

#352 - Aug. 19, 2014, 2:26 p.m.

pdavis.8031:

So I was thinking about the introduction of precurser crafting. I know that John Smith cannot answer specificially concerning such things, but my main concern would be a price shock if/when an annoucnement is made. I would think that even an announcement of such a thing would cause MANY people to rush out and buy up as much T6, Lodestones and whatever else may be thought to be used in such a venture.

My question is would the economy be able to handle such a thing? Would prices climb dramatically for a short period and then stablize? or just spiral upwards out of control? Are these things even considered when discussing the possibily of precurser crafting?

I understand that some of these may not even be able to be discussed in depth, but I am just curious as to how the economy would react to something like this. Thanks!

I’m here to protect the game from major problems like this. Any major feature that would affect the economy of the game I’m brought in to help with.

#373 - Aug. 20, 2014, 4:05 p.m.

Supermagnum.3458:

John Smith.4610:

Mckeone.9804:

Has anyone ever given you an award for good communication, ie, giving straight answers or, if you don’t have a straight answer, admitting it and explaining why?

No and while I’m here answering questions often, tact clearly isn’t my strongest skillset, so I’ll need to continue developing that before any awards are in order.

Well it’s about time we fixed that.

I will treasure this.

#374 - Aug. 20, 2014, 4:08 p.m.

Mckeone.9804:

Supermagnum.3458:

John Smith.4610:

Mckeone.9804:

Has anyone ever given you an award for good communication, ie, giving straight answers or, if you don’t have a straight answer, admitting it and explaining why?

No and while I’m here answering questions often, tact clearly isn’t my strongest skillset, so I’ll need to continue developing that before any awards are in order.

Well it’s about time we fixed that.

I heartily endorse this post.

Another serious question:

Do you have different measures of money supply that you track? For example, M1 = all gold in player wallets, M2 = all gold in player wallets + all gold tied up in TP bids, M3 = all gold in player wallets + all gold tied up in TP bids + gold held in the gem exchange?

Also, do you track the value of tradable assets held in player accounts?

Yes, and it is pretty close to what you’re saying, but the manner in which I track is a bit different since we have to apply some weights. For example, accounts that have achieved X or haven’t played in Y time to kitten raw wealth or realistic liquid wealth.

#381 - Aug. 21, 2014, 1:23 p.m.

eekzie.5640:

My only real concern with the current economy is that I think the following is a huge flaw, and I would like to see your opinion about it.

The Watchwork Mining Pick, an infinite use mining tool, gives a clear advantage over other infinite mining picks. Big enough, in it’s current shape, that the ‘’Return on Investment’’ is drastically shorter than any other (I don’t really like to use that term and I’ll explain in a bit). The other issue I have is that because watchwork sprockets are a wanted item it will maintain a certain value that I believe will hold for a considerate amount of time. Now this is a good thing, that items are desirable, but I don’t feel like the mining pick should come into this equation.

The reason why I don’t like to use return on investment for an infinite mining pick is because in the original design it was a convenience item. Therefor the return would be irrelevant. However, with the Watchwork Mining Pick it doesn’t feel like this to me.

Can you perhaps share your vision regarding this item?

I’m sorry, I don’t have an answer I can share about this one.

#382 - Aug. 21, 2014, 1:25 p.m.

Wanze.8410:

Are there still Mystic Forge Recipes/items that havent been discovered yet that are not recipe sheets for food feasts/pots/trays or recipe sheets for satchels/boxes of armor?

Does Zommoros still have some secrets up his djinny sleeve?

Yes.

#384 - Aug. 21, 2014, 1:52 p.m.

Wanze.8410:

John Smith.4610:

Wanze.8410:

Are there still Mystic Forge Recipes/items that havent been discovered yet that are not recipe sheets for food feasts/pots/trays or recipe sheets for satchels/boxes of armor?

Does Zommoros still have some secrets up his djinny sleeve?

Yes.

Is it Mounts?

It’s the Christmas present you always wanted, but never received.

#419 - Aug. 22, 2014, 1:05 p.m.

I’ve answered all these questions before, several times. Does anyone have the links for those answers? (Even I don’t want to comb through my entire post history )

#421 - Aug. 22, 2014, 1:11 p.m.

Supermagnum.3458:

John Smith.4610:

Supermagnum.3458:

John Smith.4610:

Mckeone.9804:

Has anyone ever given you an award for good communication, ie, giving straight answers or, if you don’t have a straight answer, admitting it and explaining why?

No and while I’m here answering questions often, tact clearly isn’t my strongest skillset, so I’ll need to continue developing that before any awards are in order.

Well it’s about time we fixed that.

I will treasure this.

Well its obvious that you deserve it. With this recent backlash I’ve seen plenty of references to the effort you put into this section.

“While some forums get Anet attention and dev interaction (ex: BLTC forum)…”

“I’ve loved the back and forth with John Smith in the q&a thread over there, it’s been pretty fascinating even with the understanding that he WILL NOT answer questions about anything specific that might affect the current economy or future releases.”

That was just in the last 2 hours and if the search function worked properly I could probably find the rest.

Also for Christmas, can you convince Anet to rebuild Fort Marriner Waypoint. I’ll donate all my bloodstone bricks and some gold to have it reconstructed.

I truly do appreciate this community’s support. The positive reaction here from all the players is what allows me to continue posting despite my numerous errors. Thank you for reading, playing and supporting us here at ArenaNet, you all rock.

#426 - Aug. 22, 2014, 2:14 p.m.

Michael Walker.8150:

Hey John, thank you for answering the questions here and talking to the community in general, it’s appreciated.

1. When you came up with voluntary/charity gold sinks, how far did you take it in concept and did you turn down the idea of more visually impactful donations? Such as speeding up reconstruction of certain parts of Lions Arch or rewarding donors with a name/donor’s plaque, depending on how generous donations were.
   Did the money that went to Heal-o-tron actually had an impact on reconstructing Lions Arch?
   If the Asura ever decide to crowd found a biggest-mega-laser, I’d be happy to speed up construction and fuel corruption.
2. Why does a bottle of Elonian Wine cost 25s 4c instead of a flat 25s or 24.99s?
3. What was the hardest decision you had to make since Launch?

I have searched through your messages by highlighting “hobo” and “heal” but I didn’t find anything. Didn’t look for the other questions.

Have a great weekend

1. We prototyped several ideas, but ended up going pretty basic. I really like the idea of charity sinks that have a larger visual affect on the world or help surrounding people.

2. I’ve been meaning to check up on Heal-o-tron. That money should have been used properly, but I did see him recently with what appeared to be a very expensive fur coat, definitely need to follow up on that.

3. It never occurred to me to think about it, I have no idea.

4. Identifying exploiters early in the game had a lot of very hard decisions involved.

#427 - Aug. 22, 2014, 2:19 p.m.

Rouven.7409:

Is elder wood giving you headaches after the introduction of foxfire clusters?

Aand, sort of a repeat … you have to love numbers, perhaps you could tease us with some numbers. I don’t know, x bazillion oozes squished since launch and they dropped x gold total. Pretty please with interest on top.

Just this month 7,496,080 Oozes have been dealt with.

#449 - Aug. 25, 2014, 1:19 p.m.

captainteemo.6537:

First I wanted to say it’s great you’ve talked to the community so often and in such a straightforward fashion.

I don’t know if my question has been asked before, the posts have become quite long and if someone has an answer that would be great.

After the transition to the new wardrobe, Several items have become a burdern to player inventories such as armors bought with karma and even armor bought with gold. Does it seem detrimental if these items could be salvaged?

1) Gold cost of buying cultural armor and even armor skins from each order doesn’t seem like it would offset the possible ‘ecto’ gain of salvaging. Would this be likely to happen in the near future?

2) If karma armor could be salvaged only to remove upgrades added to the armor (and possibly not runes that came with such an armor) be possible in the future? Or is it mainly the fear of possible unknown exploits that’s keeping this from being implemented?

Large game systems often require consistency, like following coding standards when programming. It’s a giant collaborative process and consistency protects us and the players.

#450 - Aug. 25, 2014, 1:23 p.m.

Mckeone.9804:

In general, do you consider the impact of magic find when deciding on rewards for LS & seasonal events? For example, in deciding to change Queen’s Pavilion from mob drops to event reward chests.

Nope. Changes like that aren’t made because of magic find, they’re made because it’s superior design.

#451 - Aug. 25, 2014, 1:23 p.m.

Wanze.8410:

pdavis.8031:

I may be repeating a question, but couldn’t find it anywhere. Was there an economic reason for ascended gear being bound (Soul/account) and not tradeable on the TP? And if so, what were those reasons? Maybe a way to minimize a “pay to win” scenario? Or to avoid having a bunch of new items that would reach the cost of legendaries and be seen as unobtainable by the player base?

It was clearly a game design and not an economic decision.

#452 - Aug. 25, 2014, 1:27 p.m.

Psientist.6437:

Imho, honesty without tact is the cliche of ’keeping it real", and tactful honesty is difficult to balance in an anonymous forum. I think John Smith does a decent job, even though he never answered my last questions.

1, Have you ever made a statement concerning the ethics of economic punditry in game or in the forums? I imagine you see posts from people giving not only bad information but purposefully misleading information.

Perhaps a for instance would help. Say I am convinced that Fishing game-play will be released on Monday and want to talk about the effects of fishing on the economy. Would you have pointers or standards you would want players to apply to such a discussion?

Yes, the first time I was less than tactful was inspired by someone clearly attempting to mislead people about economics and game design. The rules are pretty intuitive though. Do not attempt to mislead people, making an argument using a different set of inputs is good business we always need more perspectives, making those inputs intentionally fallacious to prove some that isn’t true will end poorly.

It’s basically the opposite policy of news stations

#454 - Aug. 25, 2014, 5:32 p.m.

Ayrilana.1396:

John,

Can you provide an explanation of what a player-driven economy is?

Do you feel GW2 falls under this and why?

Super very simple:
Players set prices, players set supply. Prices are set by the players. Players can change the supply of items by changes in their play activity.

All vendor based economies are not player driven. The TP is player driven. Apologies for the terse response, remind me sometime to revisit this more thoroughly.

#460 - Aug. 26, 2014, 12:55 p.m.

Torsailr.8456:

Hi John,
They announced last week pricing changes to the Commander Tag…and some changes to how it would be implemented. Were there any economic discussions about the price changes or was this a purely game design decision? If there were economic discussions can you talk about any of the factors that went into the change?

There were economic discussions, but design was the most important thing, since any economic impact would be minor.

#461 - Aug. 26, 2014, 12:56 p.m.

Cormac.3871:

I’d like to know if the latest trend of time gated material that can still be bought off the trading post (mawdrey components, ascended armour components) is a deliberate attempt to allow people to make money crafting by preventing a small number of users flooding the niche as soon as it becomes apparent.

PS thanks John for taking the time to respond to all the questions here, and thanks Wanze for creating the topic. This is my favourite forum thread that hasn’t been deleted.

Having crafters able to make money was certainly part of the design intention.

#464 - Aug. 26, 2014, 2:45 p.m.

Elrey.5472:

Random questions of the day for fun purposes:
-At the actual market price, how much would it cost a single +70 Agony Resistance item?I managed to get a number like 6665327449000000000000000000000000000 gold, but i’m not sure if it’s accurate.
It also makes me wonder a second question.
-Has anyone done already a +20 item?

Assuming the +1’s are 10s, and we start from 1 and only user 1’s; it would cost (2^69 + 1)/10 gold which I believe is 59,029,581,035,870,565,171.2 which, if I didn’t make an error, is 59 quadrillion gold.

edit: the + sign not displaying for some reason.
edit 2: I forgot thermocatalytic reagents.

#466 - Aug. 26, 2014, 5 p.m.

Hitman.5829:

Hi John Smith,

Chili peppers, lemon grass, and a few other crafting materials are ridiculously high on price. What is anet doing to solve this problem?
https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/bltc/Farming-Prices-on-TP-must-go-down/first#post4326876

I’m not sure we’ve all agreed that’s a problem.

#469 - Aug. 26, 2014, 6:31 p.m.

Bettik.4982:

Hi John, just so you know, one of those cupcakes over on https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/cupcakes-for-arenanet was bought for you. You might not actually get one, but hey, RNG…

Thank you!

#482 - Aug. 27, 2014, 4:34 p.m.

The TP Issues are technical issues. While they could fixed, it would be time consuming and we feel there are bigger issues we should be putting engineers’ time on.

#484 - Aug. 27, 2014, 5:15 p.m.

eekzie.5640:

John Smith.4610:

The TP Issues are technical issues. While they could fixed, it would be time consuming and we feel there are bigger issues we should be putting engineers’ time on.

Couple weeks ago the TP was absolutely flawless and super fast.

Any easy way to get it to be like that again?

Yes. The TP runs on Scotch. We put in a nice 25 year in that week and it really kicked it up a notch.

In seriousness though we’re constantly working on improving performance and I expect the TP will get better and better over time.

#501 - Sept. 2, 2014, 2:15 p.m.

Wanze.8410:

Random stat request of the day:

Which item has generated the highest volume of sales tax in July 2014?

I would go for ectos.

You would be correct.

#502 - Sept. 2, 2014, 2:25 p.m.

LordByron.8369:

John Smith.4610:

you mistakenly perceive a fantastic and functioning system as broken

Might i dare you to post your statement (without anyone involved just saying you believe economic system is fantastic and functioning) in general section or on a CDI?

out of this subforum would gather thousands answers in few hours.

I’m tempted to register to reddit and link that sentence without ANY comment.

My current role on these forums is not to debate on a subject, but to inform you of my thoughts, feelings, process…etc or to answer questions and educate.

Instead of goading, I suggest you write a detailed description of why you feel the way you do and you may PM it to me and I’ll respond.

#504 - Sept. 2, 2014, 2:29 p.m.

TPMN.1483:

With the addition of the 2nd Birthday Present (Birthday Blaster – it has pretty awesome stats tbh)-
Birthday Blaster – Shoot out birthday cakes that grant a 10 min buff to anyone nearby – Soulbound
+ 40 to all attributes
+10% Karma
+15% Magic Find
+15% Experience from kills
Does not replace or remove other food buffs.

Or:
Dragon’s Revelry Starcake
Nourishment (30 m):
+45 Power
+45 Precision
+45 Vitality
+45 Toughness
+45 Healing Power
+45 Condition Damage
+45 Ferocity
+20% Magic Find
+10% Experience from Kills

Intended to do the following:
1) Encourage players to eat food?
2) Are Players going hungry And starving all the time ? (killing things is hungry work)
3) depress the cooking market crafted foods even further ? (star cakes are 70s each, birthday boost gun is free – this takes away some unique crafting for those who gained the recipe)
4) Cause a bigger glut of Food on the market? (There are already millions of items of some foods untouched for over a year with supply clearly growing and this is a pretty big buff on the gun and it will be the case of finding someone with a gun in a dungeon etc)
4) ensure that only certain foods for specific purposes sell ? (Eg condi duration lvl 80)
5) was cooking always intended to be the cheapest market to learn – the NPC warns before learning this profession it will be expensive and will take you to all realms of the world?

A surprising number of players never use food despite how powerful it is. While it is not the items primary purpose, I would like it if it taught people how great food is and more people became eaters.

#509 - Sept. 2, 2014, 6:11 p.m.

papry.8096:

What do you think about the mini market in terms of supply and volatility ?

It’s not one of my favorite markets.

#513 - Sept. 2, 2014, 7:49 p.m.

xeysorso.3751:

Hi John,
Taken from the feature pack article: Any minis currently in your bank or bank collection tab will still be in your bank when you log in. You’ll need to take them out individually and choose whether to unlock them for your account or dispose of them some other way

What will happen to the pet if you have a pet on the trading post? Will mini still be tradeable to the TP post September feature pack? What does dispose in some other way mean?

Thanks for your time

If that isn’t clear in the blog post try starting a new thread for that question.

#514 - Sept. 2, 2014, 7:50 p.m.

papry.8096:

John Smith.4610:

papry.8096:

What do you think about the mini market in terms of supply and volatility ?

It’s not one of my favorite markets.

I’m so sad right now.

Then which one is it and why ?

Ecto of course! For a myriad of reasons starting with velocity and volume, but also its rippling effects on other markets.

#523 - Sept. 3, 2014, 1:27 p.m.

Morsus.5106:

Hi John!
1) Can I just say it’s awesome that you take the time to give these answers to the community?
2) What has been your biggest headache working with this economy?
3) Do you enjoy working on the mysterious “Trading 2.0”?
4) Is it more common for a player to sell a “Fine” or “Masterwork” piece of gear, or to sell it?

1. Thanks!
2. Goldsellers – (I have many posts on my feelings about them). Being outnumbered 100,000 to 1 against thieves is a rough situation to be in.
3. (too close to content speculation, going to avoid sorry)
4. I’m guessing you mean salvage or sell. It’s far, far, far more likely for a player to salvage at this point.

#524 - Sept. 3, 2014, 1:29 p.m.

Michael Walker.8150:

Since the introduction of transmutation charges, has there been a significant increase in mats coming from lvl 1-79 armor?
How many armors have been saved from oblivion in the past 4 months?

Do you think the price for lower level transmutation is adequate? Considering my problem of out-leveling those skins very quickly and the fact that new players might not want to afford 15g for a complete armor change.

I’m not sure I entirely understand what you’re asking. Could you elaborate or rephrase the question so I know I’m answering the right thing?

#525 - Sept. 3, 2014, 1:41 p.m.

Gibson.4036:

John Smith.4610:

A surprising amount of players never use food despite how powerful it is. While it is not the items primary purpose, I would like it if it taught people how great food is and more people became eaters.

It’s also a nagging hassle.

I wouldn’t mind using food more often for its benefits, but I only consistently do in circumstances where I seriously need the edge, for example non-zerg WvW.

A simple UI change could help a lot. When I play, I don’t usually have a good idea of how much time is passing. I shouldn’t, because I should be engaged in something interesting. While I do watch buff/condition icons for game play, over the course of thirty minutes I’m guaranteed to lose track of the fact that the little food buff disappeared at some point. It can be quite a while before I think, “Oh, I need to eat again!”

Giving me some sort of eye-catching “You’re getting hungry” (food buff about to expire) element in the UI would go a long way to make sure I am consistently eating and thereby contributing to food (or ingredient) demand on the market.

Even better would be some way to automate the whole thing. Give me a slot somewhere in the UI where I can drop a stack of each kind of “nourishment” and have the game automatically consume it when each one expires. I’m sure I’ll get some hate for “dumbing down” the game with this suggestion, but I can’t see that having to open the inventory and click a food and an maintenance oil every half hour is really contributing much to raising the skill ceiling of the game.

There are many problems with automation. For example, you’re hanging out in DR with friends and eating 1g/hour worth of high end food and oils because you forgot to take them out of the slot. They aren’t unsolvable, it’s just not straight forward either.

#527 - Sept. 3, 2014, 1:54 p.m.

Wanze.8410:

John Smith.4610:

Michael Walker.8150:

Since the introduction of transmutation charges, has there been a significant increase in mats coming from lvl 1-79 armor?
How many armors have been saved from oblivion in the past 4 months?

Do you think the price for lower level transmutation is adequate? Considering my problem of out-leveling those skins very quickly and the fact that new players might not want to afford 15g for a complete armor change.

I’m not sure I entirely understand what you’re asking. Could you elaborate or rephrase the question so I know I’m answering the right thing?

I think many people who ask questions in this topic confuse the game economy with the gem store. While the gem exchange certainly plays a big role in the game economy, i dont think the Game Economist has much to dowith items put into the gem store, there is other staff responsible for that. Maybe John can elaborate a bit on that, so i rephrase my point as a question:

As the Game Economist, are you involved in creating new items for the gem store and to what degree? (some feedback on the decision to make the salvage cost of the new silver fed salvage o matic 66% higher than regular master salvage kits either here or in the dedicated thread in this subforum would be appreciated)
Do you give input for pricing of gem store items?
Does your role involve responsibility for gem sales or are you purely responsible for in game gold and other currencies?

I’m unable to comment on my interaction with the gemstore. Even if I were, I would avoid it as I believe it will derail the thread.

#533 - Sept. 3, 2014, 2:14 p.m.

Michael Walker.8150:

@Wanze
I think it got across the wrong way, I’m more interested in the effect the trans charges have on mats coming from armor

John Smith.4610:

I’m not sure I entirely understand what you’re asking. Could you elaborate or rephrase the question so I know I’m answering the right thing?

• Before the wardrobe the player fused two matching armor pieces, selecting skin, stats and sigil of either one. by doing so, one gets deleted.
  http://wiki.guildwars2.com/images/thumb/b/b0/Transmutation_Stone_Example.jpg/800px-Transmutation_Stone_Example.jpg
  Now the player just salvages the armor and by doing so gets the skin and materials.
  In case of light armor for instance this could be expensive mats, I’m asking if this had any significant/positive effect on those markets.

• The total amount of armor saved from oblivion would be the amount of transmutations done since the release of the wardrobe but since it is part of the gem store so you probably can’t answer.

• Concerning the price, one transmutation charge equals one transmutation crystal (lvl 80) or 3 transmutation stones (for lvl 1-79).
  In the new wardrobe, all transmutations cost one crystal or would have in the old system. This seems expensive, even more so because equipment changes a lot while leveling.
  I was asking if you think this is working as intended or maybe fewer charges have been sold since then.

thank you for answering!

Ah, ok.
The change in the transmutation system would have little impact on the material markets. While the numbers are large, the amount of items that are salvaged every day is enormous.

#535 - Sept. 3, 2014, 2:41 p.m.

Lilith Ajit.6173:

Wow. Maybe I should salvage more.

I waste too many items to merchants out of laziness. I know you’ve answered this question about specific materials being sold to merchants in the past, but do you keep track of armors and weapons being sold to merchants and how much material on average is being essentially deleted from the game?

Yes, we have an extensive data platform.

#539 - Sept. 3, 2014, 2:55 p.m.

Lilith Ajit.6173:

pdavis.8031:

Lilith Ajit.6173:

Wow. That must be a ton of data.

Do you ever delete historical data or do you keep it backed up for.ev.er.? Heh

I hope so. I would hate to think that they follow the IRS method of data storage….. :P

Haha right? That’s an insane amount of data.

Archiving is one thing. Deleting data is a crime against humanity.

#546 - Sept. 3, 2014, 6:25 p.m.

Herr der Friedhoefe.2490:

John Smith.4610:

A surprising amount number of players never use food despite how powerful it is. While it is not the items primary purpose, I would like it if it taught people how great food is and more people became eaters.

How about a gift of food/boosts every level? Just a small selection.

That would introduce the topic, and reinforce the idea regularly.

Now, about Badges of Honor please?

Thank you Psientist, I understand what you’re saying about currencies produced by stable workloads but to use your own comparison of Karma and Badges of Honor, at least Karma is consumable and beneficial. To date, Badges mostly are not beneficial and since the start of EoTM that currency has been produced at a far greater rate, with still no benefit. Why?

Yes Wanze, I know he can’t talk about future possibilities. I would like to know how we got here. Oversight?

Dear John…. err, I’m not in the habit of writing Dear John letters… Can this be fixed?

Thank you

Good catch on the grammar error, I corrected my original post.
I’m sorry I can’t talk about the future of badges at the moment.

#558 - Sept. 4, 2014, 12:58 p.m.

titanlectro.5029:

So the next point of interest will be about the new TP, and yet John Smith is not listed as a speaker on this post?!
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/points-of-interest-episode-6/

This needs fixing!

A lot of people put a lot of work into the new TP and they deserve to get some airtime to talk about their work. I’m no expert on UI by any means.

I am excited about the new buying and selling UI the most. It’s designed to reduce information asymmetry (it’s designed to give all users easy access to more information) and I think it will be really helpful for new players or players that are less studied on prices.

#569 - Sept. 5, 2014, 1:27 p.m.

LordByron.8369:

John Smith.4610:

LordByron.8369:

John Smith.4610:

you mistakenly perceive a fantastic and functioning system as broken

Might i dare you to post your statement (without anyone involved just saying you believe economic system is fantastic and functioning) in general section or on a CDI?

out of this subforum would gather thousands answers in few hours.

I’m tempted to register to reddit and link that sentence without ANY comment.

My current role on these forums is not to debate on a subject, but to inform you of my thoughts, feelings, process…etc or to answer questions and educate.

Instead of goading, I suggest you write a detailed description of why you feel the way you do and you may PM it to me and I’ll respond.

I don t want to PM because its indeed a matter of public interest.
I said all my frieds left due to economy (grind is tied to economy)

And start with reading this:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/2fj64j/inflation/
(recent popular topic… i don t even have an acccount on reddit so its not “my perception”, but i think i’ll register to provide some more feedback)

I would also argue that a common thing you hear in this game (in the game itself not in the forum) is you win GW2 by playing the TP.

And TP flipping is seen as the only way to get access to BiS items and shinies.

I hope you don t really ignore or don t think a more than noticeable part of GW2 (most veteran non flipping the TP actually) players perceive economy as OK, because it would just mean you are denying the obvious.

Just send a GM (without the anet tag possibly) to discuss economy with any WWW or Dungeon/fractal player with a reasonable amount of achievement points.
Then do the same with new players (not newbies, but someone that has a lvl 80 character and face the problems of gearing up).

I could see before 80 everything seems great.

That is the fastest way to see how your economy is really perceived.

That is try to gather feedback outside of a forum where players first purpose is to gather information on economy manipulation.

I’ve read the thread, it’s not actually about inflation, but a misunderstanding of what indicators of inflation are, it’s about precursor prices.

I don’t understand what point you’re making here? You’re saying veteran players are upset about the economy, because you’ve heard that from people. It seems your primary concern is that TP flipping is the only way to make money and that’s upsetting people? We’ve discussed in great depth why that isn’t true.

#570 - Sept. 5, 2014, 1:30 p.m.

Supermagnum.3458:

John Smith.4610:

A lot of people put a lot of work into the new TP and they deserve to get some airtime to talk about their work. I’m no expert on UI by any means.

I am excited about the new buying and selling UI the most. It’s designed to reduce information asymmetry (it’s designed to give all users easy access to more information) and I think it will be really helpful for new players or players that are less studied on prices.

Well since your not spending time on the podcast, you should test the new TP UI by taking say 200g-500g and challenging yourself to make as much profit as possible in a week (use every dirty trick you can think of to squeeze out a profit, your also testing how the market reacts to super secret commerce stuff). Post your results at the end of the week and gloat how you just emptied the market of thick leather sections(which at more than 10k gold would be insane).

This is a funny idea, but I don’t think it would endear me to the general population (or my community team).

#586 - Sept. 8, 2014, 1:12 p.m.

Wanze.8410:

Question:

From an economic point of view, does the fact the Living Story content is now permanent, make your job of balancing material faucets easier?

I would reckon its easier now because you add new sources permanently. During season 1, it seemed to me, whenever you tried to add some more mats to the economy, it just resulted in a small supply spike and once the chapter was over, everything was back to normal. As an example, cloth during the Escape/Battle for LA come to mind, as well as exotic sentinel gear in the same updates.

It’s actually harder. With short term content we can be a lot more liberal with changes because the worst case scenario is minimized. With permanent content a lot more research has to go into the long term stability of markets.

#591 - Sept. 8, 2014, 5:50 p.m.

Attempting to track people manually isn’t effective. If we suspect it’s getting unwieldy we have a numbers of options to make insider traders (and them only) lose large quantities of money. We’ve done this before to destabilize insider trading as an idea and will likely do it again.

#611 - Sept. 10, 2014, 7:57 p.m.

Herr der Friedhoefe.2490:

Wanze.8410

What makes you think those changes have an economic reason?

I think they don’t have an economic reason, that’s sort of why I’m asking.

They certainly have no good economic reason for players to do them. The cost of crafting for Alpha Crafter for example, and the reward? Those are the most expensive 5 ectos, ever.

I would say that Economics was not the driving force behind many of these changes, but I still think they’re good changes.

#625 - Sept. 16, 2014, 1:26 p.m.

Getting a bit off topic ladies and gentlemen.

#634 - Sept. 17, 2014, 2:31 p.m.

Loot isn’t assigned until the player interacts, so technically 0. I could estimate based on probabilities, but that would be some work.

#635 - Sept. 17, 2014, 2:32 p.m.

Essence Snow.3194:

Is the economy designed around rewards or are rewards designed around the economy? (not talking about appearances ofc)

I’m not sure I entirely understand this question, could you elaborate?

#638 - Sept. 17, 2014, 4:53 p.m.

Torsailr.8456:

Hi John,
I saw this video on Extra Credits today.
http://youtu.be/W39TtF14i8I

Would you say this is an accurate overview of MMO economics? I think I see a lot of concepts there that match elements of the economy in GW2.

Also, the video talks about how a treasury can influence inflation by controlling how much money is minted and that can be mirrored in an MMO by controlling how much gold is dropped by mobs. We’ve seen you do this with champ bags but do you also control the gold drops from regular mobs in a similar manner?

I’ve never noticed a change in coins from mobs but then it’s such a tiny amount that I typically ignore it. However, a tiny amount for me would be a huge amount on a global scale and any changes to that would have a not insignificant impact on the economy.

It’s an interesting video, but I agree with the comment made in the beginning, that was not enough time to explain the concepts involved.

For example, Printing money and not printing money isn’t really how inflation is controlled in real life, but if you only have 30 seconds to explain what inflation is you aren’t going to start talking about the government policies to change money supply.

I like the medium too, it’s a fun watch, but overall there’s so little content that it leaves me with an incomplete feeling.

#640 - Sept. 17, 2014, 6:44 p.m.

Ensign.2189:

John Smith.4610:

For example, Printing money and not printing money isn’t really how inflation is controlled in real life, but if you only have 30 seconds to explain what inflation is you aren’t going to start talking about the government policies to change money supply.

For sure, but especially given how the real economy is performing in real life right now, I’d really like to see a clear distinction made between the quantity of spending and the quantity of money and how these are absolutely not the same thing.

It’s probably a bit too wonky, I get it, but whenever I see “printing money = inflation” when we’re in the middle of the biggest natural experiment ever proving conclusively that is not true I die a little inside.

100% agree. I suppose the question to ask is, is it better to attempt to explain the concepts with information that isn’t really as true as they think or leave the concepts shrouded in mystery entirely (this is assuming they have constraints on their video)?

I usually fall strongly on the side of don’t teach incorrectly, ever, give proper information or don’t teach, but misleading people is so bad.

I’m beginning to question that philosophy though, in a game you can afford to not know or care about the economy, it’s a game! In real life you cannot choose to not participate, does even a little half-correct information make people better off or worse off?

#651 - Sept. 18, 2014, 1:19 p.m.

Essence Snow.3194:

John Smith.4610:

Essence Snow.3194:

Is the economy designed around rewards or are rewards designed around the economy? (not talking about appearances ofc)

I’m not sure I entirely understand this question, could you elaborate?

What is the main consideration for the distribution (probability/requirements) of rewards? How it’ll effect the economy? How it’ll be perceived by the player base?

The designers and I discuss the changes, each time new content is released is a different story/plan/result.

#652 - Sept. 18, 2014, 1:21 p.m.

Wanze.8410:

John Smith.4610:

Torsailr.8456:

Hi John,
I saw this video on Extra Credits today.
http://youtu.be/W39TtF14i8I

Would you say this is an accurate overview of MMO economics? I think I see a lot of concepts there that match elements of the economy in GW2.

Also, the video talks about how a treasury can influence inflation by controlling how much money is minted and that can be mirrored in an MMO by controlling how much gold is dropped by mobs. We’ve seen you do this with champ bags but do you also control the gold drops from regular mobs in a similar manner?

I’ve never noticed a change in coins from mobs but then it’s such a tiny amount that I typically ignore it. However, a tiny amount for me would be a huge amount on a global scale and any changes to that would have a not insignificant impact on the economy.

It’s an interesting video, but I agree with the comment made in the beginning, that was not enough time to explain the concepts involved.

For example, Printing money and not printing money isn’t really how inflation is controlled in real life, but if you only have 30 seconds to explain what inflation is you aren’t going to start talking about the government policies to change money supply.

I like the medium too, it’s a fun watch, but overall there’s so little content that it leaves me with an incomplete feeling.

In terms of printing money in game: How often have gold rewards been adjusted with the main purpose of adjusting inflation/deflation?

Could you see a significant change in the amount of gold that was present in the economy for exampe after dungeon rewards or champ bags were introduced or gold rewards from champ bags got taken away?

1. No comment :P
2. Yes, the changes in aggregate happen almost immediately.

#655 - Sept. 19, 2014, 1:19 p.m.

Wonderly.1324:

John Smith.4610:

Essence Snow.3194:

John Smith.4610:

Essence Snow.3194:

Is the economy designed around rewards or are rewards designed around the economy? (not talking about appearances ofc)

I’m not sure I entirely understand this question, could you elaborate?

What is the main consideration for the distribution (probability/requirements) of rewards? How it’ll effect the economy? How it’ll be perceived by the player base?

The designers and I discuss the changes, each time new content is released is a different story/plan/result.

Can you explain this for legendary weapons and precursors? Specifically, what purposes were these items meant to fulfill (in player perception, impact on the economy, or any other relevant areas). What are some examples of how the current system (RNG, tradeable on a player-driven market) succeeds in these items fulfilling their intended purposes? What are some areas in which these items fail to fulfill their intended purposes (or fulfill them poorly, or could be improved upon to better fulfill the intended purposes)?

I think this question would be better answered by Izzy. I tend to have a very macro biased view of legendary weapons, so they fulfill macro-economy values very nicely (great! right?). The current system is a great driver for end game resources and a great sink for those resources as well. That doesn’t mean it’s the best system, it just means it’s economically effective at the moment. I wouldn’t want to comment much beyond that without Izzy’s input.

#666 - Oct. 8, 2014, 10:35 a.m.

Good idea.

#668 - Oct. 9, 2014, 1:55 p.m.

Wanze.8410:

How, in your opinion, would the game economy have evolved differently, if the gold/gem exchange wasnt implemented?

I think it would be pretty much the same.

#670 - Oct. 9, 2014, 2:22 p.m.

Wanze.8410:

John Smith.4610:

Wanze.8410:

How, in your opinion, would the game economy have evolved differently, if the gold/gem exchange wasnt implemented?

I think it would be pretty much the same.

Lame.

The CE is really a reflection of gem value and isn’t as strongly tied to the economy as many think it is.

#674 - Oct. 9, 2014, 6:11 p.m.

Wanze.8410:

tolunart.2095:

Wanze.8410:

John Smith.4610:

The CE is really a reflection of gem value and isn’t as strongly tied to the economy as many think it is.

So as a gold sink/counter inflation measure its not very relevant?

I think the point is that the TP and gem store are two very different entities and don’t really influence each other very much.

I mean, there are players who farm for gold to exchange for gems, then spend them in the gem store, yes. But if the game launched without this exchange, they would not be farming for gold to spend in the TP nearly as long because it’s a lot easier to get the things you want from the TP and then drop out of the market, perhaps out of the game altogether because the only real long-term goal is Legendary crafting.

Likewise, a lot of people assume players are spending thousands of real dollars on gems to exchange for gold to buy Legendaries and such, but I don’t think this happens very often. More likely they use it to craft with alts for XP and to buy equipment when the player has money to spend but not a lot of time to grind. Those players are less likely to want a Legendary and are just interested in playing the game the way they want.

And movement of the currency values over time shows that many more players are converting gold to gems than the other way around. So the gem store is impacted by this far more than the TP. Without this exchange, there would be far less players farming in the game, but the impact would probably not be severe, since there would also be a lot less “flipping” and other activities. Prices would not change as quickly and some items would not move as quickly, but otherwise there would be little difference.

Yeah, obviously alot more gold went into the CE then came out of it since launch. My question was, if that amount is meaningful compared to the total amount of gold generated in game. If all the gold that went into the CE since launch (minus the gold that came out of it for gems) would still be in the game economy, i would expect overall prices on the tp to be inflated to what we have now.

Wouldn’t even make a dent.

#677 - Oct. 10, 2014, 1:20 p.m.

Sariel V.7024:

Any chance for a response on my question? I think you may have missed it.

I apologize, I can’t currently speak on that.

#679 - Oct. 10, 2014, 2:18 p.m.

JBDanger.2603:

John Smith.4610:

Sariel V.7024:

Any chance for a response on my question? I think you may have missed it.

I apologize, I can’t currently speak on that.

Anet’s famous response for everything!!!

This is a 14 page thread of me answering all I can; throw me a bone sometimes.

#682 - Oct. 10, 2014, 3:53 p.m.

wwwes.1398:

Could you discuss your thoughts on the consumable ingredient market in general and, more specifically, cooking? And I know you can’t comment on that question specifically, but is it fair to say that there IS something you’re hoping to accomplish with these new recipes and that it’s not just some arbitrary value being thrown out there?

There are several different ideas going on mixing between scarcity, sinks and faucets, usefulness and lore. We often vary the different weights of each of these to get a feeling for the effectiveness of the design changes. Food is tricky because it’s so powerful, but also so abundant. Sometimes we might want to just get people to try eating food more often, sometimes we might want a rare food, sometimes we’re thinking about 18 theoretical months from now and the resources involved instead of right at the moment. The mix of all these may make it seem like a random grab bag of decisions, but it isn’t. With each iteration we’re learning and getting better.

#684 - Oct. 11, 2014, 11:22 p.m.

John Smith.4610:

JBDanger.2603:

John Smith.4610:

Sariel V.7024:

Any chance for a response on my question? I think you may have missed it.

I apologize, I can’t currently speak on that.

Anet’s famous response for everything!!!

This is a 14 page thread of me answering all I can; throw me a bone sometimes.

Seriously, guys, John’s an amazing forum contributor. Play nicely — we want him to keep up the good info as he’s able to give it!

#689 - Oct. 13, 2014, 4:42 p.m.

Herr der Friedhoefe.2490:

Gaile Gray.6029:

John Smith.4610:

JBDanger.2603:

John Smith.4610:

Sariel V.7024:

Any chance for a response on my question? I think you may have missed it.

I apologize, I can’t currently speak on that.

Anet’s famous response for everything!!!

This is a 14 page thread of me answering all I can; throw me a bone sometimes.

Seriously, guys, John’s an amazing forum contributor. Play nicely — we want him to keep up the good info as he’s able to give it!

He’s an amazing contributor, probably the best dev contributor on these forums, but it was a pretty good question from Sariel and well presented. For those of us interested in crafting it’s an issue.

At lot of the game developments recently just don’t make any sense. A good example is the krait collection reward, a recipe that no one in their right mind would ever make because it’s not worth to use t6 mats to get an extra 15 minutes of food effect. There are a lot of examples.

I can appreciate that everyone’s favorite economist can’t answer, and he’s probably not responsible for the decisions being made. So is there perhaps someone else Gaile who you could forward the question to?

Be careful saying things don’t make any sense, it’s very rare that’s true. Almost everything (I’m speaking generically) is done for some reason or purpose, that purpose isn’t always very clear at first.

For example, what if we did something like release candy corn before our first Halloween event. Nobody’s ever seen Halloween so candy corn is just some weird item that makes you throw up when you eat too much (very similar to real life). The developers know that Halloween is coming though and they wanted to start filling the world with this currency so people can get started on their rewards right away instead of taking a couple of days to earn enough to start, but want to have a price schema that works over multiple years of releases. Next year there will be candy corn in the world, but this year there isn’t so there’s conflict.

Please note this is a hypothetical situation I just made up off the top of my head and has no basis in any kind of reality. I’m just trying to demonstrate that sometimes there are good reasons for actions that aren’t immediately clear. This doesn’t mean you should stop questioning actions, you shouldn’t, not here, not anywhere. It just means that you should continually reevaluate your beliefs as time goes by and you learn more and more, this is one of the reasons that I come here to tell you what I can about our thought process and our decision making.

P.S. There’s a cognitive bias that makes us bad at doing this called Bayesian Conservatism that we have to fight against.

#692 - Oct. 14, 2014, 3 p.m.

Leamas.5803:

So, are you saying that you believe that even if the CE had not existed from the start of the game, rare items such as PCs and uber rare skins would still be approximately the same value as they are now? Do you think the negative affects (Negative from a player perspective) the wardrobe had on high end skins will recover back to “normal” prices? I think every time I get close to having enough money to buy a pre, something happens and it it goes way up again…3 times now it’s happened. I just can’t bring myself to play the mystic forge. I don’t have greatest luck in this game at the best of times and at what is it, about a 1:900 chance for a pre with four level 80 rares? The RNG acts very strangely with me and seems anything but random (Which I have reported to ANet couple times). Just can’t do it. I know people who have thrown in over 1000g worth of stuff to get nothing, while I know others who have gotten multiple pre drops with little effort from the forge. Personally, I think the pre supply needs to be increased to undo what the wardrobe has done. Demand was greatly increased on an already very limited supply.

The experience you’re describing would be exactly the same had the CE not existed since launch. Whether that experience SHOULD exist, is another topic entirely.

#696 - Oct. 14, 2014, 4 p.m.

Atreides.3709:

John, you said the following:

• Almost everything (I’m speaking generically) is done for some reason or purpose, that purpose isn’t always very clear at first.

While we are aware that such things are in the nature of game development—that you can’t speak of until it’s ready, I think we can all agree, especially with the creation of Gaile’s new position, that ANET has had room to improve regarding communicating with their players. My two cents on this is: Gaile wants us to be nice. It would be nice to not be condescended upon. Quoting theories of economic logic doesn’t play well with most people, we few Plebeians here.

I have a question, and I’m almost certain it’s too specific to warrant any kind of substantive answer from you, but I thought I would try. Can you comment on, or at least give a defense of, why it is healthy to have the Amberite weapon’s fossils be non-tradeable? I spent around 20 hours of game-time farming geodes, opening chests, and to no avail. That experience was neither fun, nor rewarding, and I have not been back to Dry Top since. This is an area where the economic choices in your game, for me specifically, caused the game to cease to be fun or enjoyable. I highly enjoyed the weapons’ look; however, with the limited time I have to play games, I will and have chosen to take my time elsewhere. I don’t want to play a game in hopes to get “X,” only to never know when that will happen. And so, from point “A” (me with no Ambrite weapon) to point “B” (my sweet precious) has no guarantees of length of grind; thus, I choose to play another game instead.

Thanks for any consideration.

I apologize if that previous post comes off condescending it isn’t intended to. I often use very specific language and long descriptions because I’ve been told that it’s often people don’t understand the point I’m trying to make. In an attempt to fix that problem I’ve begun writing more elaborate descriptions, but it appears that has a slightly pedantic quality. One day I will find the correct middle ground.

For your question it is a bit specific, I’ll need to chat with some individuals before I know whether it’s acceptable to answer.

Generically, we often make items non-tradeable so that players must participate in the content to receive the rewards or so the reward is some indicator of your status of participation.

#697 - Oct. 14, 2014, 4:01 p.m.

tolunart.2095:

Leamas.5803:

The RNG acts very strangely with me and seems anything but random (Which I have reported to ANet couple times). Just can’t do it. I know people who have thrown in over 1000g worth of stuff to get nothing, while I know others who have gotten multiple pre drops with little effort from the forge.

This is the definition of “random.”

You might be referring to the clustering illusion. Wikipedia has a really cool gif:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion

#709 - Oct. 14, 2014, 7:32 p.m.

There isn’t such thing is some accounts getting stuck lucky. Yes there’s an RNG, yes it’s random and there are streaks and outliers and an even aggregate distribution.

#713 - Oct. 14, 2014, 9:04 p.m.

wwwes.1398:

John Smith.4610:

There isn’t such thing is some accounts getting stuck lucky. Yes there’s an RNG, yes it’s random and there are streaks and outliers and an even aggregate distribution.

Can you confirm whether it is an RNG that uses some sort of value from the user’s account or whether it is purely random/session based? I have a friend who swears that smack-talking an anet dev during a beta weekend pvp match doomed his account to poor rng for life.

Absolutely it does not use anything to do with a user.

#725 - Oct. 15, 2014, 1:19 p.m.

I think the RNG as a concept might be a topic large enough to warrant a separate thread. I’m going to spin one up where we can discuss different theoretical tactics with dealing with the inherent problems in RNG.

#731 - Oct. 17, 2014, 5:58 p.m.

Afya.5842:

I feel like this is a dump question and I don’t even know if the answer of my question can be derived from previous answers. But it just pops up in my head so if anyone can answer or point me to the right direction, it’d be great.

Dungeon running is recognized as the current highest g/hr farming method and also one of the most popular one. However it rewards player mostly in straight gold instead of drops. Does this eventually leads to inflation? because that more people run dungeon instead of farming materials?

It doesn’t necessarily lead to inflation, but it is a major input of liquid currency into the economy.