Gold losing value at an accellerated rate

#1 - Aug. 28, 2013, 8:19 a.m.
Blizzard Post

After months of slowly losing value versus gems, gold has taken an alarming dip.

Please comment on the recent instability in the economy. Gold generation via game rewards has really taken off but is it healthy for the economy? Because the game money cannot be loaned, increased money supply translates into inflation. My own opinion is to trim gold rewards while leaving the increased consumable and salvagable material drops as they are in Scarlett hunt events. The lack of farming due to continuous event releases had tightened the market for many craft materials but the higher event rewards seems to have prevented price drops on crafting consumables while significantly changed the gem exhange rate.

Personally, I have no issues with a change in the gem exhange rate but am more concerned with the rate of change. Please consider my request for more monetary stability.

#7 - Aug. 28, 2013, 1:11 p.m.
Blizzard Post

Overall yes we know there’s a change in short run income for players, though it’s not as severe as speculated. No, we aren’t surprised. Yes, there are plans in place to make sure the economy doesn’t experience permanent, hyper-inflation.

As far as the median numbers go, remember that how much information I can give out on the forums is often very limited. I do my best to give you a picture that you can work with. I described exactly how to take the one number I gave out and create an accurate model of what’s happening. The uncertainty in your model is unfortunately unavoidable (but can be minimized) as I can’t always post the full picture of everything that’s happening.

#44 - Aug. 29, 2013, 10:19 a.m.
Blizzard Post

Other then physically destroying currencies, in real life there’s no “money” sink, as mostly everything ends up having value and no money is physically removed from the economy (except the money destroyed, as I referenced above).

This game, anything bought at a vendor, anything traded on the trading post, anything that involves trading currency with an NPC is a subtraction of the currency from the economy. This means that it’s gone, it’s literally out of the flow.

If we ignore credit (which is a huge oversimplification in the real world) this is more or less correct.

In both cases the rates are related by a simple relationship:

Accumulation = Generation – Destruction

In the real world economies, as you pointed out, the rate of currency destruction is low. That means to keep accumulation low, generation must also be low.

In GW2, generation is enormous – just look at the amount of raw gold created every time you go out to play. This means that destruction must also be enormous if accumulation is to be kept in check.

The strength of GW2’s money sinks rests on the 15% TP fee – because it scales up with the amount of money in the economy. Even T3 cultural armor is only a one time sink, and only pulls a flat amount of money out. The TP fee takes 15% over and over and over again – the game cannot generate more money than the TP fee can sink.

Secondly, as player base increases, wouldn’t inflation go down as the money is spreading out.

If the amount of money in the economy was fixed that would absolutely be the case.

It isn’t fixed, though: the rate of gold generation scales with the number of players (more players farming = more players generating gold). So if you doubled the number of players, you’d also double the rate of gold generation, and double the rate of gold destruction, and with the way these things scale you’d have roughly double the amount of money sitting around in the economy.

Can someone correct me here if I’m wrong? as I understand it, unless core components of the economy change (TP fee, where the money goes when buying from a vendor), all inflation is temporary.

You’re right that all inflation is temporary – in the real world central bankers work really hard to balance money flows to keep inflation within an acceptable range. Since WWII they’ve done a pretty remarkable job of keeping inflation in a controlled range, enough so that most people kind of understand slow, stable inflation to be ‘normal’.

But it’s all temporary. In reality there are a bunch of different market forces pulling on supply and demand on a large scale, and those are all changing over time – not just when something big changes, but as people accumulate wealth and their goals and farming patterns change. Big bursts of inflation, or deflation, in the economy these days are going to be from something changing – and recently we’ve had a lot of big changes.

This is a great post.

#46 - Aug. 29, 2013, 10:23 a.m.
Blizzard Post

I stopped bothering to listen to him a while back as there is nothing of worth to gather from the words he is permitted to say to us. Kinda like the words of a fortune being meaningless as they are so generalized that they may apply to anything.

Yup, precisely. John is barely allowed to tell us anything and when he does it’s so vague and cryptic that it’s essentially worthless.

I can think of absolutely no reason why the player base shouldn’t be permitted access to basic information about the economy. His remark about the median returns from gauntlet farming is a perfect example. The median alone tells us almost nothing. What was the mean? What about gold earned by the top quintiles or deciles and the population statistics to match?

https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/bltc/Economy-concerns/page/3#post2642294